MANILA – Philippine exports likely slowed to a 2 percent increase in May from the 7.6 percent growth the month before, according to DBS.
The National Statistics Office is scheduled to release the May figures on July 10.
“Essentially, the April growth figure was probably skewed to the upside and is unlikely to be sustained,” DBS said in a research note on Monday.
The NSO earlier reported that electronics shipments, which comprise the bulk of exports, fell 23.8 percent. Despite this decline, other types of shipments jumped 91.5 percent, thus leading to the positive April figure.
“Without the surge in that category, headline growth would have been negative. At this point, it is far from clear that this spike in exports can be maintained and we have assumed that this is a one-off jump. Against the backdrop of slowing global growth, the outlook for exports has become considerably cloudier,” DBS said.
“The temporary rebound in electronics exports in the early part of the year has tapered off as inventory restocking ran its course. With final demand not likely to pick up, the value of electronics exports is likely to go largely sideways for the next few months,” it added.
Data from NSO showed electronics exports had grown 5.8 percent in the first quarter before dropping in April. The Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Inc. already cut its growth forecast to a range of 5-7 percent this year from an earlier estimate of 10-15 percent.
DBS however expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.3 percent, or above the low-end of the government’s target range of 5-6 percent notwithstanding the “external drag on growth in the second half.”
In the first quarter, the country’s gross domestic product grew a faster-than-expected 6.4 percent, making it Asia’s second-fastest after China.
source: interaksyon.com
