There’s not a whole lot to say today. Mortgage backed securities rallied yesterday in the absence of any real meaningful economic data. Even though the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program has wrapped up, the Fed is still making reinvestment purchases of MBS to the tune of $21 billion from Nov 14th-December 10th, and I’m guessing that the Fed sucking up some of the supply of MBS contributed to the rally – and even there, I’m grasping at straws. Either way, mortgage rates improved yesterday, and somehow are improving/holding their ground this morning despite upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP. Go figure.
Today’s Economic Data:
This morning we got the second estimate of 3rd quarter GDP, which surprised to the upside, coming in at 3.9%. The number was anticipated to be revised down to about the 3.3% range after the advance estimate came in at 3.5% last month. A pretty good report all around.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August came in a hair above expectations, with the 20-city index showing a seasonally adjusted month-over-month increase of 0.4%. The non-seasonally adjusted number came in flat. Year-over-year growth came in at 4.9%, compared to 5.6%, 6.7%, and 8.0% in the previous reports. Growth in the housing sector continues to slow.
Lastly, Consumer Confidence came in far below expectations, falling from a level of 94.5 in October to 88.7 in November. The expectation was for a reading of 96.5. The previous month’s reading was the highest we’ve seen since 2007. I guess the consumers aren’t so confident after all. On the whole, today’s economic data was mixed, but recent economic data has been somewhat positive. With regard to the economy and the recovery, I’d reference the (unprintable here) admonition of Mr. Winston Wolf from Pulp Fiction, but it looks like things are moving in the right direction.
That said, rates have been remarkably resilient of late, and I don’t anticipate that will change in the immediate future. Inflation measures are still low, and talk of rate hikes have been muted. We’ll get some more key inflation data tomorrow, so there is some risk tomorrow, but given the holiday, the snowstorm, low trading volumes, and short-staffed trading desks, I’d be surprised if we see any great net change in rates in the next couple of weeks, and if we do, I bet it will be transitory. It remains a good time to purchase a home or refinance your current mortgage.
This Week’s Significant Economic Data:
Monday:
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey:
Tuesday:
GDP: Expectations: +3.3%, acutal: +3.9%.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: See above.
Consumer Confidence: Expected: 96.5, actual, 88.7.
Wednesday:
Durable Goods:
Personal Income and Outlays:
Weekly Jobless Claims:
Consumer Sentiment:
New Home Sales:
Pending Home Sales:
Thursday:
Thanksgiving – markets closed.
Friday:
Chicago PMI – markets close early.
Are you looking to refinance your current mortgage or buy a new home? Rates are close to the lows of the year, and you may be able to lock in a low rate for many years to come. Call us today to get a free rate quote or to speak with one of our licensed mortgage professionals.
source: totalmortgage.com
