Depending on who you talk to, the current problems are either a temporary setback or indicative of things to come. Covering both ends of the spectrum, here are a few things that may–or may not–unfold in the 2016 housing market:
Rising housing prices
Svenja Gullen, Chief Economist at Zillow, and self-proclaimed optimist believes that housing prices are set to rise 3.5 percent in 2016. That’s slightly down from 2015’s nationwide average of about 4 percent. Of course, local markets can vary drastically with their performances, and there will no doubt be cities that will outperform the national average. Denver, Dallas, Miami, Seattle, and Pittsburgh all seem poised to do just that. Zillow has the following as their top 10 housing markets for 2016:
Denver
Seattle
Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas
Richmond, Va.
Boise, Idaho
Ogden, Utah
Salt Lake City
Omaha, Neb.
Sacramento, Calif.
Portland, Ore.
Rent will go up
Rent.com released their 2015 Rental Market Report, and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for renters. According to the report, vacancy rates are the lowest they’ve been in almost twenty years. That means demand is high, resulting in little wiggle room when negotiating the price of rent. It doesn’t help when property managers are eager to get after the benjamins, with 88% saying they raised their rent in the past 12 months.
The report also showed that 68% of property managers believe that rising rent will continue in 2016, with an average of 8%. Keeping up with constantly rising rent can be a battle when your income isn’t increasing at a similar rate, which is exactly what’s been happening.
Eager home buyers will continue to struggle
The NAR’s Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey shed some light on the desires of prospective home buyers in 2016. It showed that 94 percent of current renters who are 34 years of age or younger want to own a home in the future. Out of all renters, 83 percent said they have a desire to own, and 77 percent think that homeownership is part of their American Dream.
The inability to afford to buy was the top reason for not currently owning (53 percent), followed by the flexibility of renting as the second most popular reason (19 percent). Lifestyle decisions such as getting married, starting a family or retiring were cited as top reasons for shifting to owning at 33 percent, and improvement in their financial situation came in second at 26 percent.
The clear takeaway from all of this data is that people want to own homes, it’s just difficult to make the dream a reality–especially for young buyers. With wages barely rising and rent soaring, it can be incredibly difficult to put money away for a down payment. It’s particularly burdensome for borrowers who are already struggling with high student loan debt.
The economy will falter
Of course, there are some outliers that do not think the U.S. economy is as strong as the pundits and politicians lead everyone to believe. While most people are blaming foreign affairs for our recent domestic stock market troubles, a few are saying that the cause is actually the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates last month.
They claim that because the Fed’s free money is no longer propping up the markets, the economy is slowly sinking down to its true form. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve is forced to backtrack on its commitment to raise rates, and will ultimately have to cut rates. Home prices could take a hit if the situation got bad enough. This would be terrible news for homeowners. Will it happen? Unfortunately, we’re forced to wait to find out.
source: totalmortgage.com
