Shipping giant Maersk diverts vessels from crisis-hit UK

Danish shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk said Tuesday it had started to divert vessels away from Britain's biggest container port because of congestion, the latest fallout from multiple crises hitting the UK.

The country is suffering runaway energy prices, shortages of goods, fuel delivery issues and a worsening long-term shortage of lorry drivers, with post-Brexit immigration controls and the pandemic among the causes cited by experts.

Felixstowe in eastern England has been particularly hard hit, prompting Maersk to divert one ship each week out of the usual two or three that call there.

A company spokeswoman said the ships, each carrying thousands of containers, were being redirected to continental ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp.

Cargo would then be loaded onto smaller vessels to dock at other British ports or at Felixstowe when space opens up.

The spokeswoman said the firm was committed to getting goods to Britain for Black Friday and Christmas.

"Maersk official Lars Mikael Jensen said the driver shortage had slowed down container movements at Felixstowe, which deals with just over one-third of UK freight container volumes.

"We did it for a little while over the summer and now we're starting to do it again."We are having to deviate some of the bigger ships away from Felixstowe and relay some of the smaller ships for the cargo," he said.

Agence France-Presse

Cheers, fears, tears as Brexit finally dawns

Union Jack-waving Brexit backers danced in the London rain on Friday as the hours wound down to Britain's split from the European Union after years of epic drama, but for others there were only fears and tears.

After 47 years in the European fold, the country leaves the EU at 11:00pm (2300 GMT) on Friday, with a handful of the most enthusiastic supporters gathering opposite the Houses of Parliament 12 hours before the final countdown.

"It's a great relief that we're finally leaving the EU," said Wayne Green, 48. "The EU is a con, it's been a con since we started and I'm so glad that we're leaving."

Things got more feisty as the evening wore on and the historic moment neared, with a small group burning the gold-and-blue European Union flag and chanting: "Bye bye, EU, bye bye!"

Others were there to commiserate, wearing EU berets and holding signs reading "we'll be back", and "you have destroyed my future career and dreams".

"People are really, really depressed about this and some people may do silly things -- we've already had one attempted suicide," said accountant Peter Benson, 57.

"Grief, sadness," added women's rights activist Katrina Graham, 31.

"It's deeply, deeply appalling that this is actually happening.

'Utter disaster' 

While the two groups largely kept apart, there was a minor flashpoint when one man placed his paintings, depicting a naked Prime Minister Boris Johnson riding a donkey, at the foot of Parliament Square's Winston Churchill statue.

"He's very rude, very rude. A lot of people don't know history and they don't respect tradition, they don't respect the culture," said Nados Adhanom, 36, who works in a bakery.

The exchange reflected similar arguments that have raged across the country for more than three years, after Britain voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, and emotions are still raw.

"I think it's an utter disaster, it's awful," said Daniel Price, a sales director from Brighton, on England's south coast.

Across the banks of the River Thames in the city hall building, London Mayor Sadiq Khan met hundreds of Europeans who worried about their future status in Britain.

"For more than a thousand years, we've been open to people, trade and ideas, and as long as I'm mayor, that's not going to change," Khan told AFP

But Bulgarian national Toni Petkova was less certain.

The pro bono legal assistant said officials data showed 96,000 Bulgarians needing to apply for settler status by the end of June, or get kicked out.

"So far, almost 140,000 have applied, which means 140 percent," she said, worrying that authorities had no idea how many Europeans needed help getting registered in time.

"A lot of them do not use the internet, they don't follow the news, they don't even speak English, some of them. They live in their own bubbles and they don't even know that they have to apply."

'Too polite' 

But the mood was more buoyant in the industrial towns of northern England that voted heavily to leave.

"In London it is going to be decked today with Union Jacks, I am very pleased," said 82-year-old Ada Sowerby in the northeastern coastal town of Hartlepool, where voters opted to leave by a margin of almost 70 percent.

"I'm pleased, it's about time, this has taken far longer than it should have," added fellow resident Eric Horsley.

While Brexiteers got ready to mark the historic moment, Remainers were already looking ahead to rejoining the EU.

"I'm certain the UK will be returning to the EU in the future, in maybe 10 years," said Benson, the London accountant.

"France and Hong Kong have shown the way how to protest; we are being too polite."

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Brexit day: United Kingdom casts off from the European Union

LONDON -- The United Kingdom leaves the European Union on Friday for an uncertain Brexit future, its most significant geopolitical move since the loss of empire and a blow to 70 years of efforts to forge European unity from the ruins of two world wars.

The country will slip away an hour before midnight from the club it joined in 1973, moving into the no man's land of a transition period that preserves membership in all but name until the end of this year.

At a stroke, the EU will be deprived of 15 percent of its economy, its biggest military spender and the world's international financial capital of London. The divorce will shape the fate of the United Kingdom -- and determine its wealth -- for generations to come.

"This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act," Prime Minister Boris Johnson will say in a television address, though he has given few clues about his post-Brexit plans beyond inspirational words.

"This is the dawn of a new era," Johnson, one of the main leaders of the "Leave" campaign in the 2016, will say.


Beyond the symbolism of turning its back on 47 years of membership, little will actually change until the end of 2020, by which time Johnson has promised to strike a broad free trade agreement with the EU, the world's biggest trading bloc.

For proponents, Brexit is a dream "independence day" for a United Kingdom escaping what they cast as a doomed German-dominated project that is failing its 500 million population.

DIS-UNITED KINGDOM

The June 2016 Brexit referendum showed a nation divided about more than Europe and triggered soul-searching about everything from secession and immigration to capitalism, empire and modern Britishness.

Such was the severity of the meltdown over Brexit that allies and investors were left astonished by a country that was for decades touted as a confident pillar of Western economic and political stability.

At home, Brexit has tested the bonds that bind together the United Kingdom: England and Wales voted to leave the bloc but Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay.

So on "Brexit Day", some will celebrate and some will weep -- but many Britons will do neither.

Johnson will chair a cabinet meeting in Sunderland, the first city to declare support for leaving the EU in the June 2016 referendum. Brexiteers will celebrate on Parliament Square while some opponents of Brexit are also due to gather.

A Union Jack in the building of the European Council in Brussels will be lowered at 1800 GMT on Friday (2 a.m. Saturday in Manila), and put away with the flags of non-EU countries.

The European Parliament plans to place one of its British flags in the House of European History, a nearby museum of the continent's history since the French Revolution of 1789.

After the repeated failure of "Remainers" to unite, organize or win elections, the main hope of europhiles is that the economic impact of leaving will convince a new generation to plot a way back into the fold.

With sorrow, some support for Brexit and even hope of a return, Europeans from across the EU's 27 remaining members bade farewell.

"I am very sorry that the United Kingdom is exiting. I think it is a very, very bad thing for Europe, for the United Kingdom, for everything," said Sara Invitto, from Milan. "Goodbye!"

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Over and out: Britain readies to leave the EU

LONDON - Britain calls time on almost half a century of European Union membership this week, striking out alone in a historic move that has bitterly divided the country.

At 11:00 pm (2300 GMT) on January 31, the UK will become the first country to leave the 28-nation EU, the world's largest single market area that it joined in 1973.

Nothing will immediately change, owing to a transition period negotiated between London and Brussels to allow both sides to agree a new future partnership.

Britons will be able to work in and trade freely with EU nations until December 31, and vice versa, although they will no longer be represented in the bloc's institutions.

But legally, Britain will be out.

The exit process has been tortuous, with the years since the 2016 EU referendum marked by bitter arguments that paralysed the government and forced two prime ministers to quit.

Four years ago, 52 percent of Britons backed Brexit but 48 percent wanted to stay, and the country is still split between "Leavers" and "Remainers".

The political chaos came to an abrupt halt last month when Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a decisive victory in a general election with a promise to "Get Brexit Done".

The British parliament this week finally ratified the exit terms agreed with Brussels, and Johnson called on the country to move on.

"Next Friday marks an important moment in the history of our United Kingdom," he said.

"No matter how you voted in 2016, it is the time to look ahead with confidence to the global, trail-blazing country we will become over the next decade and heal past divisions."

The next stage of Brexit will also be a challenge, however.

Johnson wants to negotiate Britain's new relationship with the EU, covering everything from trade to security cooperation, by the end of the year.

But Brussels says this is an impossible ask, arguing that London must either limit its ambitions or request more time.

MUTED CELEBRATIONS

Johnson has been an enthusiastic supporter of Brexit since leading the 2016 campaign, but he is wary of inflaming divisions with the celebrations.

Official events on Friday will be limited to a special prime ministerial address and a light display in Downing Street.

Ten million commemorative 50 pence coins will also be issued in the coming months, bearing the words "Peace, Prosperity and friendship with all nations".

Previous batches had to be destroyed after Brexit was delayed three times due to political wrangling in London.

Some eurosceptics had pressed for parliament's famous Big Ben bell, which is being renovated, to be brought back into action to ring out on Brexit night.

But it was dropped after concerns about the cost. Johnson initially asked for public donations, only for officials to admit this was not possible.

A countdown clock will instead be projected onto the black bricks of Downing Street, while Nigel Farage, another key figure in the 2016 campaign, will hold a rally in nearby Parliament Square.

DIVIDED NATION

Britain has always had an uneasy relationship with Brussels and refused to join either the EU's single currency or the Schengen free travel area.

A minority of politicians have campaigned for decades to free Britain from what they see as an overly bureaucratic and unaccountable institution.

Concerns grew as large numbers of EU citizens moved to Britain to work, while for many, Brexit was also a protest against a political establishment they felt was ignoring them.

Yet for others across the continent, Brexit day will be a traumatic moment, ending any lingering hopes that the break-up could somehow be stopped.

"We still love you," tweeted Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, this week after the divorce treaty was formally signed.

Many of the estimated 3.6 million EU citizens living in Britain, and one million Britons elsewhere in the bloc, fear an uncertain future.

Brexit has also severely strained ties between the four nations that make up the United Kingdom.

The devolved assemblies in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales all rejected the terms of the divorce, although for different reasons.

In Scotland, where pro-European sentiment remains strong, the nationalist government is pressing for a second referendum on independence.

Many in Northern Ireland meanwhile are concerned about special trading arrangements intended to keep open its land border with EU member Ireland.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Brexit's new chapter: the 'impossible' trade deal

BRUSSELS — With just 2 weeks to go before Brexit, European diplomats are preparing for the next phase: intense negotiations to hammer out a future with Britain after its EU divorce.

Brussels is braced for new rounds of Brexit battles, aware that a bullish Prime Minister Boris Johnson is feeling reinvigorated after an electoral victory in December.

Here are the main battle lines revealed to AFP in interviews with 18 European officials and diplomats closely involved in the talks:

NO EXTENSION

Throughout his campaign, Johnson said he would seal a trade deal by December 31, the deadline set by the EU-UK divorce agreement, though London can request an extension of 1 or 2 more years.

This marked the EU's first reality check -- only reluctantly accepted. They no longer expect Johnson to ask for a delay.

That leaves only eight months, from March to October, to reach an agreement and allow time for ratification. "It's an impossible task," warned one European diplomat.

"At the end of the year, we could get the skeleton of a trade agreement plus something on internal and foreign security, but there is no guarantee," the diplomat added.

Talks can begin as soon as EU ministers agree their joint mandate on February 25.

JOHNSON IS NOT MAY

Johnson's campaign promised "to get Brexit done" and to do away with his predecessor's goal to keep close ties with Europe and disruption to the cross-Channel economy to a minimum.

Theresa May's government had proposed a "dynamic alignment", where London would match EU rules on the environment, state aid and other standards to allow UK companies easy access to Europe.

Johnson will instead pursue a far more minimal trade deal that will seek zero tariffs and quotas on goods.

"The prime minister has been clear that he wants a Canada-style free trade agreement with no alignment," a UK official told AFP.

This refers to the EU's trade deal with Canada that Europeans consider ambitious as a trade deal, but too narrow for an important neighbor like Britain.

THREAT TO UNITY

A mere trade deal would be an economic blow to Britain, but also to the UK's closest trading partners -- such as Ireland, France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

No alignment on EU standards means custom checks, paperwork and all sorts of new limits to trade.

"Our first choice is that nothing changes," lamented a diplomat.

"But that is not going to happen, so we must now be realistic."

Johnson's low-bar strategy could be the biggest challenge to European unity since the Brexit referendum in 2016, diplomats said.

Member states will be pulling in different directions with some like France, Belgium and Denmark concerned about fishing while land-locked eastern Europeans and Germany will want a deal on cars.

'ZERO-DUMPING'

Referred to as keeping a level playing field, member states with the most trade with Britain will be dead-set on ensuring that British companies gain no unfair advantage after Brexit.

When British goods and services come knocking on Europe's door, they will insist that UK goods are subject to checks like those from any other non-EU country.

"Zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping," the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said on recent visit to Sweden.

Diplomats warn there were not many ways to enforce the level playing field in a simple trade deal, except through threatening tariffs that can take months or even years to impose.

As a sign of London's good faith, Europeans will be keeping a close eye on British compliance with the withdrawal agreement, in particular the customs arrangements on the Irish border.

"If they play around with that, the impact on trade talks will be immediate," one diplomat warned.

BIG DEAL?

One question nagging Europeans, notably France, is the future structure of the EU's relationship with Britain.

Will it be something formal, with clearly set joint institutions, or a looser arrangement structured by separate deals on trade, security and other topics as necessary?

Many European capitals abhor the latter, spooked by the EU's confused ties with Switzerland, which are governed by over 100 deals.

"We would favor a more organised structure," an EU diplomat told AFP.

'NEGOTIATION TABLES'

Months of intense discussions, to alternate between London and Brussels, will be coordinated by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart, probably David Frost.

The tight deadline allows "about 40 days of pure negotiation" in 8 to 10-week sessions, an official warned.

This is a far cry from the years devoted to trade deals with Canada, Japan or South Korea.

Another diplomat said negotiators would open about ten "negotiating tables" with some done in parallel.

"We will give each subject 2 or 3 weeks and see what is possible. If the divisions are too great, we move on. Some issues will be well advanced, others will go nowhere," he said.

Agence France-Presse

World stocks close out 2019 with robust gains

NEW YORK -- World stocks on Tuesday closed out a notably profitable year, with Wall Street recording its best annual performances since 2013, boosted by hopes for a US-China trade deal.

New York rallied into the close, turning positive for the day and leaving the broad-based S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq up 29 percent and 35 percent respectively for 2019, the best showings in 6 years.

Key European markets showed increases of 25 percent or more for the year, partly thanks to late surges on receding recession fears and easing China-US trade war tensions.

Brexit-hit London, however, trailed its peers with a 12 percent annual rise, less than half the percentage increase managed by Paris, Frankfurt and Milan.

Earlier on Tuesday as US markets were about to open, President Donald Trump tweeted that a partial trade deal with China would be signed in Washington on January 15, ending some of the uncertainty about efforts to cement the deal announced earlier this month.

Quincy Krosby of Prudential Financial told AFP the US-China detente could help decide the direction of the global economy next year.

"Much of the enthusiasm in the market is based on the idea that global growth is going to begin to accelerate, albeit slowly," she said. "The question will be, do we actually see positive growth, especially in China?"

Demand in China is crucial to chances for renewed growth in global trade, while the China trade agreement could see US corporations begin investing again after a year when corporate capital spending stagnated worryingly, according to Krosby.

'CAUTIONARY TONE'

Asian stock markets closed mainly lower on Tuesday, with Hong Kong ending a half-day of trading almost 0.5 percent down, although the bourse rallied more than seven percent in December. Tokyo was shut for a public holiday.

"While market volumes are predictably light, investors continue to strike a year-end cautionary tone as December optimism is gradually giving way to 2020's uncertainty," Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader, said in a client note.

Asian investors were also watching for significant policy announcements early in the New Year.

In a New Year's speech on Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un struck a decisively militaristic tone, warning of a new strategic weapon and "shocking" action. 

Analysts said all eyes were on nuclear-armed Pyongyang's threat of a "new way" after its end-of-year deadline for sanctions relief from the United States.

An address by China's President Xi Jinping will be followed closely by the markets as well.

Elsewhere Tuesday, oil prices slid despite reports Iran had seized a vessel suspected of smuggling fuel near the Strait of Hormuz -- a chokepoint for a third of the world's seaborne oil.

Over the year, the price of Brent North Sea crude jumped by almost one quarter and the New York benchmark contract WTI soared more than one third in value, helped by tighter supply.

The pound finished a volatile year with gains Tuesday against the dollar and euro.

KEY FIGURES AROUND 2130 GMT (5:30 a.m. Wednesday in Manila)

New York - Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 28,538.24 (close)

New York - S&P 500: UP 0.3 percent at 3,230.76 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: UP 0.3 percent at 8,972.60 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 7,542.44 points (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.1 percent at 5,978.06 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 0.5 percent at 28,189.75 (close)

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3248 from $1.3113 at 2200 GMT 

Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.65 pence from 85.40 pence 

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1214 from $1.1199 

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 108.66 from 108.88 yen

Brent Crude: DOWN 1 percent at $66.0 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1 percent at $61.06

Agence France-Presse

EU charts path for 'challenging' post-Brexit UK deal

BRUSSELS - The EU will keep engaging with the UK through the WTO and the UN as both sides work out a deal on their future ties once Britain leaves the bloc, according to the top Brexit negotiator in Brussels.

Agreeing and ratifying a post-Brexit relationship by the end of 2020 "will be immensely challenging, but we will give it our all, even if we won't be able to achieve everything," the official, Michel Barnier, wrote in a weekend online commentary for the Project Syndicate magazine website. 

The two sides will have just 11 months to settle that agreement following Britain's formal departure from the EU on January 31. 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists he will not seek an extension beyond 2020 to fine-tune a deal. 

He has also made it clear his country will drop EU labor, environmental, financial, health and safety standards, spurring Brussels' concerns about British trade "dumping" and making prospects of a quick and comprehensive deal appear remote.

Barnier, who was unfailingly courteous when he negotiated the terms of Britain's withdrawal in a way to protect the EU's single market and citizens, said he had three goals -- framed as "New Year's resolutions" -- for the upcoming talks on the future relationship.

To work together on global issues, "the EU will continue to engage positively with the UK, both bilaterally and in global fora such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the G20," he said.

In terms of security issues, while it is "simply not possible" for Britain to have the same access to data as EU members, "tackling terrorism, cyberattacks, and other attempts to undermine our democracies will require a joint effort".

Barnier said there should be "unconditional commitment from both sides" to building a security alliance.

And for economic ties, "any free-trade agreement must provide for a level playing field on standards, state aid, and tax matters," Barnier emphasized.

That last point is seen as being a big stumbling block in the talks. 

Johnson told the British parliament last Friday that an "ambitious" trade agreement would be struck "with no alignment on EU rules, but instead with control of our own laws, and close and friendly relations".

EU officials and lawmakers have voiced concern that Johnson might be seeking to build Britain as a deregulated "Singapore-on-Thames" that would try to sell goods into the EU made cheaper by cutting rules meant to protect workers, consumers and the environment.

There is also wariness over whether Johnson wants to keep Britain positioned for easy trade with the EU, or reshape its laws to deal more with the United States.

Barnier suggested in his piece only a bare-bones trade deal was possible in the 11-month time frame "which, most likely, will have to be expanded in the years to come" to cover many areas left unaddressed.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Asia shares rest at highs, sterling licks wounds

SYDNEY -- Asian stocks took a breather at 18-month peaks on Wednesday having climbed for five straight sessions, while the British pound was licking its wounds as revived Brexit fears came back to bite it.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was dead flat in thin early trade, just off its highest since June last year.

Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.1 percent and away from its 2019 top, while Korean shares edged up 0.1 percent to an 8-month peak. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were little changed.

Upbeat economic news had helped the S&P 500 reach a record for the fourth straight session, building on its 27 percent gain this year. The Dow ended Tuesday up 0.19 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 0.07 percent and the Nasdaq 0.11 percent.

US housing starts were surprisingly strong in November, and building permits rose to the highest level since May 2007. Manufacturing output picked up more than expected as a strike at General Motors Co ended.

A run of better data recently has helped calm fears of recession while the phase one Sino-US deal on trade seems to have lifted some of the uncertainty on the global outlook.

The sea change was clear in BofA Global Research's latest survey of fund managers with recession concerns diving 33 percentage points to a net 68 percent of investors saying a recession is now unlikely in 2020.

Global growth expectations jumped 22 percentage points, marking the biggest 2-month rise on record. As a result, funds' allocation to global equities climbed 10 percentage points to a net 31 percent overweight, the highest level in a year.

THEN AGAIN...

Yet it might be too soon to declare an all-clear on the political front with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson upsetting markets by taking a hard line on Brexit talks.

Johnson will use the prospect of a Brexit cliff-edge at the end of 2020 to demand the EU give him a comprehensive free trade deal in less than 11 months.

The threat of a hard exit sent shivers through sterling, which slid 1.5 percent in its largest one-day fall this year.

The pound was last at $1.3110 having shed all the gains made on Thursday and Friday after it became clear that the Conservative Party was heading for a big win.

"We treat the risk of a hard Brexit as a 'tail risk' at this stage," said Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at CBA. "A UK-EU trade deal by end 2020, while difficult, is still possible."

"In our view GBP/USD will remain supported at around $1.3000-$1.3100 and upside contained near $1.3500 over the next several months."

Sterling's slide gave the dollar index a lift to 97.184 against a basket of currencies, extending a bounce from last week's five-month low of 96.588.

The euro also surged on the pound and was steady on the dollar at $1.1150. The yen was little changed at 109.52 per dollar.

Spot gold was idling at $1,475.90 per ounce, after a couple of very quiet sessions.

Oil prices eased from three-month highs as data showed U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly in the most recent week.

US crude fell 37 cents to $60.57 a barrel, while Brent crude futures had yet to trade.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Victory for nationalism: Johnson's win puts UK's future in doubt

BELFAST/GLASGOW -- The election result was hailed as a victory for English, Scottish and Irish nationalism - and it could spell the end of the United Kingdom.

Boris Johnson's resounding triumph will allow him to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union next month but it could spell the break-up of the union that has bound England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland for centuries.

While Johnson's Conservative Party swept the opposition aside across much of England on his promise to get Brexit done, Scottish nationalists captured 48 of the 59 parliamentary seats in Scotland.

In Northern Ireland, supporters of a united Ireland won more seats than those in the province who want to remain part of the United Kingdom for the first time since the 1921 partition which divided the British north from the Irish Republic in the south.

Throughout the election campaign, Johnson said he was committed to the union and denied accusations that his Brexit deal would create an economic barrier between the British mainland and Northern Ireland.

"At this stage it does look as though this one-nation Conservative government has been given a powerful new mandate, to get Brexit done and not just to get Brexit done but to unite this country and take it forward," Johnson said on Friday after winning his own seat in west London.

But opponents said it was Johnson's appeal to English nationalism with his promise to "Get Brexit done" at the expense of the interests of Scotland and Northern Ireland which had been instrumental in his success.

Both triumphant Scottish and Irish nationalist leaders and defeated opponents saw Johnson's victory as opening the way to the disintegration of the United Kingdom.

"Tonight we have seen that it is likely that Boris Johnson is on course to get a majority and it is clearly a good night for the SNP (Scottish National Party)," said Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrat Party who lost her own Scottish parliamentary seat to the SNP.

"Some will be celebrating the wave of nationalism that is sweeping both sides of the border."

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said the result was a clear mandate for a second plebiscite on Scottish independence.

Scotland, England's political partner for 300 years, voted against secession from the United Kingdom by 55 percent to 45 percent in 2014. But Scots backed staying in the European Union in the 2016 referendum and Sturgeon argues Brexit means they should have another say on independence.

BORDER POLL

"Boris Johnson may have a mandate to take England out of the European Union. He emphatically does not have a mandate to take Scotland out of the European Union. Scotland must have a choice over our own future," Sturgeon said.

A majority in Northern Ireland also voted against leaving the European Union and anti-Brexit parties took more seats in the province for the first time. Nationalists said the result paved the way towards a vote on whether there should be a united Ireland.

"We are heading towards a border poll, I can't give you a definitive date, but we need to do the spade work now and prepare ourselves," Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald said.

"We need to, in an orderly fashion, structure the conversation about a new Ireland and constitutional change. I don't think unionism should be alarmed or frightened, this is a huge opportunity for everybody who lives on this island."

One of those to lose their seat was Nigel Dodds, deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist Party which propped up the minority Conservative government in London after the last election in 2017.

The DUP said it had ultimately been betrayed by Johnson's Brexit deal with Brussels which they said would create an economic border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

"The great irony of all of this is that for decades unionists have looked over their shoulders and decided that Irish nationalists were the great threat ... but actually it’s English nationalism," Mike Nesbitt, former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, told the BBC.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

UK general election: what could happen?

LONDON - Britain votes in a crucial general election on Thursday, with latest opinion polls showing Prime Minister Boris Johnson locked in a tight battle to win a majority and deliver his Brexit plans.

Here is an outline of the possible outcomes:

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

A Johnson victory, regaining the Conservative majority lost in 2017, is the most likely result according to bookmakers and pollsters.

But what seemed like a comfortable lead a few days ago now looks more precarious following the release of a major new survey on Tuesday.

The YouGov poll indicated the expected Conservative majority would be slashed from 68 seats to 28 since the last survey at the end of November, with a hung parliament now within the margin of error.

With 650 seats in parliament's lower House of Commons, the poll takes 326 as the magic number, predicting the Tories will win 339 seats.

But with Irish Republican party Sinn Fein having a policy of not sending MPs to the British parliament, and with the speakers not normally involved in parliamentary votes, a working majority can be obtained with fewer seats.

In 2017, the Conservatives won 317 seats and went on to govern after striking a deal with Northern Ireland's 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs.

Any kind of majority should allow Johnson to get through his Brexit deal agreed with Brussels, putting Britain on course to leave the European Union by January 31.

LABOR MAJORITY

Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn could upset the odds and secure a majority for his left-wing agenda, which includes the re-nationalization of key sectors, including the railways and energy, and a massive public spending spree.

Britain would also vote again on whether to leave the EU with the options being a "softer" Brexit deal negotiated by his party or remaining in the union.

A Labor victory would represent a major breakthrough on the global stage for the far-left movement backed by younger voters.

HUNG PARLIAMENT

If no party achieves a working majority, then Britain would have another hung parliament, as in 2010 and 2017.

The Conservatives are still expected to win the most seats and, as incumbent, Johnson would remain prime minister and get first crack at striking a deal with opposition parties, either to join a formal coalition or for them to agree to back him on crucial votes in an informal pact.

But he has few friends outside his own party and is unlikely to win the support of the DUP this time round as they are unhappy with his Brexit deal.

Johnson could then quit or try to go it alone in a minority government, which would require him to win key votes when parliament returns. 

He would be obliged to resign if his attempts failed.

Corbyn would then try to form a government, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) indicating they would back him if he agreed to a second Scottish independence referendum.

The Liberal Democrats could also be tempted by Labor's commitment to a second Brexit referendum, but have so far "absolutely categorically" ruled out backing Corbyn, citing his radical economic agenda and anti-Semitism within his party.

Without them, Corbyn would probably fall short of forming a government or securing the backing needed to sustain a minority government.

Another election would be the only way to break the deadlock.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Ultra-rich threaten to bail on Britain if Corbyn wins

LONDON — Is Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn worse than Brexit? 

That is the belief of many British-based billionaires who are reportedly thinking of packing their bags should the veteran socialist win power next month.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose right-wing Conservative government is seeking re-election on December 12, has this week slammed left-winger Corbyn's "visceral" hatred of capitalism and compared him to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.

The leader of Britain's main opposition party has vowed to redistribute wealth to address inequality and renationalize assets, but his policies are widely regarded as unfriendly towards business and the rich.

"Clients, on the whole, appear more concerned about Jeremy Corbyn than about Brexit," said John Hill, a chartered financial planner at London-based asset management firm Saunderson House.

The Guardian newspaper, citing lawyers and accountants working for some of Britain's richest families, reported meanwhile that many people were plotting to leave "within minutes" if Corbyn wins.

RISING INEQUALITY 

After more than a decade of state-imposed economic austerity policies and flagging growth levels amid Brexit uncertainty, rising inequality is set to remain at the heart of the pre-Christmas general election.

As anticipation builds in Britain ahead of the critical vote, Labour lawmaker and loyal Corbyn supporter Lloyd Russell-Moyle stated bluntly that "I don't think that anyone in this country should be a billionaire."

Corbyn has pledged that an incoming Labour government under his leadership would pursue the "vested interests" of the elite. 

"This election is a once-in-a-generation chance to transform our country, take on the vested interests holding people back and ensure that no community is left behind," Corbyn said last week as he launched his election campaign.

Johnson is an Oxford University and elite Eton boys school graduate from a wealthy background.

In contrast, socialist Corbyn styles himself as anti-business and pro-worker -- and came close to scoring a major election upset in 2017 when he blew up the ruling Conservatives' working majority.

Flagship Labour policies include additional taxation on high incomes, inheritance and private education, while the party is also contemplating a ban on private jets to help combat climate change.

Johnson has argued that Corbyn's policies would destroy the economy.

CORBYN TO TRIGGER EXODUS? 

"The tragedy of the modern Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn is that they detest the profit motive so viscerally -- and would raise taxes so wantonly -- that they would destroy the very basis of this country's prosperity," the British premier wrote in an editorial Wednesday.

Many financial experts also fret that such an approach will simply persuade the ultra-rich to either obtain non-resident status in Britain -- or shift their investments into friendlier tax regimes like Monaco, Switzerland and elsewhere.

"I believe we can realistically expect a Corbyn government would trigger an exodus of the country's most successful and wealthiest individuals who contribute significantly both directly and indirectly to the British economy," warned Nigel Green, head of financial consultancy deVere Group.

He added that such exceptionally rich people are "internationally mobile" and would simply move -- with a large knock-on effect on the public finances.

"Should these largely job and wealth-creating individuals emigrate -- and according to our anecdotal evidence a high number very well could -- government finances will suffer considerably because they contribute a disproportionately large amount to the state's coffers," Green added.

Britain has some 151 billionaires, while the richest 1,000 people have a wealth totaling a record £771 billion, according to The Sunday Times newspaper's 2019 rich list.

Corbyn last week ramped up the rhetoric against what he calls "tax dodgers, bad bosses, big polluters and billionaire-owned media".

The Labour leader singled out Ineos energy boss Jim Ratcliffe, landowner the Duke of Westminster and hedgefund manager Crispin Odey as members of what he called the "privileged elite".

One notable critic who hit back was retail tycoon Mike Ashley, who described Corbyn as "not only a liar but clueless".

Yet not all the business community is up in arms.

"I think a lot of us (in business) are very concerned about the regional inequalities within Britain," noted John Mills, founder of home products empire JML.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Britain set for Dec. 12 election to break the Brexit deadlock

LONDON -- Britain will hold its first December election in almost a century after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won approval from parliament on Tuesday for an early ballot aimed at breaking the Brexit deadlock.

After the European Union granted a third delay to the divorce that was originally supposed to take place on March 29, the United Kingdom, its parliament and its electorate remain divided on how, or indeed whether, to go ahead with Brexit.

Johnson, who had promised to deliver Brexit on Oct. 31 "do or die", demanded a Dec. 12 election after parliament - where he has no majority - frustrated his attempts to ratify the last-minute divorce deal he struck with the EU earlier this month.

In a rare parliamentary success for Johnson after a string of defeats, his short bill calling for a Dec. 12 election was approved 438 to 20 in the House of Commons. The bill now goes to the House of Lords.

"It's time to unite the country and get Brexit done," Johnson said after meeting Conservative Party lawmakers who cheered him.

Before the vote, Johnson had said parliament was obstructing Brexit and thus damaging the economy by preventing investment decisions, and corroding faith in democracy.

The first Christmas election in Britain since 1923 would be highly unpredictable: Brexit has variously fatigued and enraged swathes of voters while eroding traditional loyalties to the two major parties, Conservative and Labour.

Some politicians feel an election so close to Christmas could irritate voters, while campaigning and getting voters out could be hampered by cold winter weather and darkness setting in by mid-afternoon.

Ultimately, the electorate will have a choice between an emboldened Johnson pushing for his Brexit deal or a socialist government under Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn renegotiating the deal before another referendum.

The election result will be announced in the early hours of Friday the 13th. If no party wins conclusively, the Brexit deadlock would continue.

CHRISTMAS ELECTION

After 4 years of arguing over Brexit, almost all British politicians now agree an election is needed to break the cycle of inaction that has shocked allies of a country once considered a bastion of stable Western capitalism and democracy.

An election, though, could decide the fate of Brexit as well as the main players - Johnson, 55, and his rival Corbyn, 70.

When Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, bet on an early election in 2017, she lost her slender majority - a failure that ultimately prevented her from ratifying her Brexit deal in parliament and sank her political career.

Johnson's Conservatives are ahead of Labour by an average of about 10 percentage points in polls this month, though pollsters underestimated the support for Brexit in 2016 and admit that the models they use are wilting beside the Brexit furnace.

Both major parties will have to fight on at least three fronts: against each other while the hardline Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage seeks to poach Brexit voters and the Liberal Democrats seeks to win over opponents of Brexit.

"This will probably be the most unpredictable election I have ever known," Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, told Reuters.

"Is it Brexit or is it not? We don't know. Second, the election is as volatile as ever and, thirdly, the potential for tactical voting - and tactical voting to go wrong - is very high given the Leave-Remain split," he said.

BREXIT UP IN THE AIR

Labour swung behind an election earlier on Tuesday.

"I'm ready for it," Corbyn told parliament. He frames Labour as a socialist alternative to the inequality and close relations with U.S. President Donald Trump that he says characterise Johnson's premiership. "Change is coming."

As Johnson moved closer to an election than he has ever been in his tumultuous three-month premiership, the EU granted a Brexit delay to Jan. 31 but warned it might be the last.

"The EU27 has formally adopted the extension. It may be the last one. Please make the best use of this time," outgoing European Union Chairman Donald Tusk said on Twitter.

Among voters, there was some relief that the Brexit debate might be ending soon.

"We've just got to bring this to some sort of resolution," commuter Matt Finch, 36, said outside London's Charing Cross rail station on Tuesday. "We've had many votes in the last 12 months in parliament and I think a general election might be a way to sort it all out."

source: news.abs-cbn.com

New Brexit deal worse for UK economy than uncertainty: think tank

LONDON -- Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal would hurt Britain's economy more than further delays and continued uncertainty about leaving the European Union, a think tank said on Wednesday.

Late on Tuesday, Johnson won parliament's support for an election in early December that he hopes will break the Brexit deadlock and lead to the approval of the deal he clinched with Brussels earlier this month.

Johnson has said his deal is the only solution to the uncertainty that has weighed on the economy since the 2016 referendum.

By contrast, the opposition Labour Party wants to negotiate a new deal and put it to a second referendum, which could overturn 2016's result.

Johnson's Brexit plan opens the door to much looser economic ties between Britain and the EU.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that the economic cost of a more distant relationship would outweigh the gains from ending Brexit uncertainty.

"We don't expect there to be a 'deal dividend' at all," NIESR economist Arno Hantzsche said. "A deal would reduce the risk of a disorderly Brexit outcome but eliminate the possibility of a closer economic relationship."

Unlike his predecessor Theresa May's deal, Johnson's does not require England, Scotland and Wales to stay in a customs union with the EU in the future, making tariffs and other barriers likely after a transition period.

NIESR estimated that in 10 years' time, Britain's economy would be 3.5 percent smaller under Johnson's plan than if it stayed in the EU - roughly equivalent to losing the economic output of Wales.

In a scenario of ongoing uncertainty similar to now - where Britain keeps the economic benefit of unrestricted access to EU markets but without any long-term guarantees - the economy would be 2 percent smaller, it forecast.

May's deal would have limited the damage to 3 percent, while a no-deal Brexit would make the economy 5.6 percent smaller than if it stayed in the bloc, NIESR said.

Earlier this month another academic think tank, UK in a Changing Europe, estimated Johnson's deal would make Britain more than 6 percent poorer per head.

In the nearer term, NIESR said the Bank of England should cut interest rates to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent at a meeting next week, but said it did not expect the BoE to act until March, when Governor Mark Carney's successor is due to be in place.

The BoE has been an outlier among major central banks in not loosening policy as the global economy slows.

NIESR said inflation was likely to undershoot the BoE's target, especially if sterling rallied on the basis of a reduced risk of no-deal Brexit.

The think-tank forecast Britain's economy would grow 1.4 percent this year and next, assuming no major short-term change to Britain's relationship with the EU, down from 1.6 percent in 2018 and well below its long-run average.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

EU nations agree Brexit delay until Jan. 31 as PM Johnson seeks election

BRUSSELS - The European Union on Monday agreed to a 3-month flexible delay to Britain's departure from the bloc as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushes for an election after opponents forced him to request an extension he had vowed never to ask for.

Just three days before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on Oct. 31 at 2300 GMT, Brexit is hanging in the balance as British politicians are no closer to reaching a consensus on how, when or even if the divorce should take place.

Johnson, who became prime minister by pledging - "do or die" - to deliver Brexit on Oct. 31, was driven into requesting a postponement after he was defeated in parliament over the sequencing of the ratification of his divorce deal.

The 27 countries that will remain in the EU after Brexit agreed on Monday to put off Brexit until the end of January with an earlier departure possible should the faction-ridden UK parliament ratify their separation deal.

"The EU27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a Brexit 'flextension' until 31 January 2020," European Council President Donald Tusk said in a tweet, referring to the idea of a "flexible extension".

But EU member states will need Britain to formally respond to its offer of a 3-month delay to Brexit before launching a "written procedure" whereby governments will have 24 hours to accept or reject the delay.

"We can only launch the written procedure when we have the agreement of the UK government on the text," said a senior EU official.

Two senior EU diplomats confirmed that the written procedure period agreed was 24 hours, effective from the time London accepts the offer of a Brexit delay from Oct. 31 to Jan. 31.

Britain's departure has already been delayed twice - from March 29 and April 12 - after Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, failed three times to get her deal ratified by parliament.

With British politics still paralyzed over carrying out Brexit 3-1/2 years after a 52%-48% referendum vote in favor of Leave, Johnson is demanding parliament approve an election on Dec. 12 in return for more time to adopt his deal.

But he needs the support of two-thirds of the 650 lawmakers for a new election. A House of Commons vote is due later on Monday.

"FLEXTENSION"

The EU, forged from the ruins of World War Two as a way to prevent another devastating conflict in Europe, is fatigued by Britain's Brexit crisis but keen not to be held responsible for an economically tumultuous "no-deal" Brexit.

French President Emmanuel Macron had been the main hurdle to an extension, arguing there had to be a good reason for a delay and that the British needed to break their own political deadlock. But a source close to Macron said the prospect of an election in Britain had strengthened significantly.

The source stressed that the third Brexit delay would come with conditions, including a refusal to renegotiate the divorce agreement and giving a green light to other EU countries to meet without Britain to discuss the bloc's future.

The latest delay plan envisages that Britain could be out on Dec. 1 or Jan. 1 should parliament ratify the agreement in November or December, respectively, according to diplomats who deal with Brexit in Brussels.

The EU will state that the extension, the third granted so Britain can sort out the details of its departure, will not be used to renegotiate the divorce treaty again, and that London should not impede other essential work by the EU on projects ranging from budgets to climate policies. (Writing by Guy Faulconbridge Editing by Mark Heinrich)

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Asian shares edge up; investors anxious over earnings, Brexit

SYDNEY -- Asian shares pulled ahead on Thursday with corporate earnings buffeting trading as investors remained anxious about the business impact of the Sino-US trade war while Brexit uncertainties kept overall sentiment in check.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2 percent with Japan's Nikkei up 0.5 percent at a one-year high. Australian shares climbed 0.5 percent while South Korea's KOSPI inched 0.4 percent higher.

South Korea earlier reported third quarter growth slightly below expectations, though exports showed signs of recovery, while a private survey showed Japanese factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in over three years in October, hurt by slowing global demand and trade frictions.

On Wall Street overnight, the Dow and the Nasdaq added 0.2 percent each while the S&P 500 gained 0.3 percent.

Telsa shares jumped 21 percent in after-hours trading following a surprise third quarter profit.

Microsoft also posted forecast-beating profit and revenue numbers after the closing bell though the outlook was darkened by slower-than-expected take-up of its Azure cloud services.

Earlier, shares of US industrial bellwethers Boeing Co and Caterpillar Inc ended about 1 percent higher each despite big earnings misses.

RBC Capital Markets' chief economist Tom Porcelli pointed to consistently alarming headlines since the first quarter of 2018 suggesting poor Caterpillar earnings meant a recession was round the corner, though that has yet to transpire.

"We have been down this road before with CAT," Porcelli said in a note titled 'Still Waiting For Recession.'

"If you keep saying a recession is here, it is a mathematical certainty that at some point you will be right," he wrote. "Maybe try again after CAT's next quarterly earnings report."

So far, results from about 125 of the S&P500 companies are out with analysts expecting earnings to have declined 2.9 percent year-over-year, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Risk appetite was also aided by a ceasefire in northern Syria which resulted in the lifting of US sanctions against Turkey.

Later in the day, European and US manufacturing numbers are due while the European Central Bank meets, with no change to policy expected at President Mario Draghi's last meeting. Draghi will be replaced by Christine Lagarde.

Activity in the currency market was rather muted.

Sterling paused at $1.2918 after rising 0.3 percent on Wednesday with Brexit developments in focus.

Britain appears closer than ever to resolving its 3-1/2-year Brexit conundrum but there are still hurdles to clear.

EU member states on Wednesday delayed a decision on whether to grant Britain a three-month Brexit extension. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said if the deadline is deferred to the end of January, he would call an election.

"The Brexit battle looks like it will drag on," economists at ANZ wrote in a note.

"The UK government will not meet its current timetable of leaving the EU on 31 October, and an extension appears likely. In the meantime, Brexit uncertainty will keep weighing on UK business investment and activity."

The single currency was flat at $1.1135. The Japanese yen was a shade higher at 108.62 per dollar while the Australian dollar was barely changed at $0.6852.

That left the dollar index mostly unchanged at 97.461 against a basket of six major currencies.

In commodity markets, U.S. crude eased 30 cents to $55.67 while Brent slipped 28 cents to $60.89.

Gold was treading water at $1,492.5 an ounce.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

British MPs give initial approval to Johnson's Brexit plan

British MPs on Tuesday gave their initial approval to a law implementing Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, but could still derail his attempts to get the agreement passed in time to leave the EU on October 31.

Johnson won the first of two crucial votes in the House of Commons, which will determine if he can fulfil his "do or die" promise to deliver Brexit next week.

MPs voted by 329 to 299 to approve in principle the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which implements the divorce treaty he agreed with European Union leaders last week.

But they could still now vote against the government's timetable to rush through the 110-page bill by Thursday evening, to allow its ratification before October 31.

The Conservative leader warned earlier Tuesday that failure to pass the motion would see him abandon the legislation -- and instead seek to call a snap general election.

The prime minister was forced on Saturday to ask EU leaders to postpone Brexit -- something he once said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than do -- after MPs declined to back his new deal.

But he could still avoid having to delay by getting the deal ratified by October 31.

Opening the debate, Johnson -- a key figure in the 2016 EU membership referendum Leave campaign -- urged MPs to support the legislation so "we can get Brexit done and move our country on".

If not, he said the "bill will have to be pulled" and he would seek an early election -- although he needs the support of Labour to do this, and it has twice refused.

Opposition parties, many of whom dislike the Brexit deal, have said it is "ludicrous" to expect proper scrutiny of the legislation in less than three days.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has called for a second referendum on Brexit, said Johnson was trying to "blindside" MPs into supporting a "rotten bill".

It "fails to protect our rights and our natural world, fails to protect jobs and the economy, fails to protect every region and every nation in the UK", he said.

The Democratic Unionist Party, Johnson's Northern Irish allies, accuse him of duping them about new trading arrangements for the province.

DUP MP Sammy Wilson said he "nearly choked" when he heard Johnson's assurances, adding: "The prime minister thinks I can't read the agreement."

EU 'will be ready'

The timetable motion is intended to ensure the House of Commons debates the bill quickly, allowing it to go onto the unelected upper House of Lords.

Johnson warned that seeking further time would kill any hope of leaving the EU with a deal next week -- and risks a "no-deal" exit if the EU declines to approve a delay.

In Strasbourg, European Council President Donald Tusk said the other 27 EU leaders were mulling Johnson's request, but the result "will very much depend on what the British parliament decides".

He said the EU should be "ready for every scenario", although he added on Twitter: "A no-deal Brexit will never be our decision."

In Paris, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said he saw "no justification at this stage" for further delay.

"We've been waiting for three years for this decision," he said.

"It's important for it to be announced today, because otherwise there will no option except 'no deal', which is not the solution we prefer."

Businesses and markets on both sides of the Channel fear a "no-deal" Brexit, where Britain severs ties with its closest trading partner with no new plans in place after 46 years of integration.

More hurdles ahead

If Johnson wins both votes on Tuesday, MPs could still derail his bill, which must also be ratified by the European Parliament.

The deal covers EU citizens' rights, Britain's financial settlements, a post-Brexit transition period until at least the end of 2020 and new trade arrangements for Northern Ireland.

It also sets out vague plans for a loose free trade agreement with the EU after Brexit.

But some MPs are seeking to amend the bill to demand Britain stay in the bloc's customs union, and others want a greater say for parliament in deciding future ties.

After tens of thousands of people demonstrated in London on Saturday for a second referendum, others could try to attach plans for a "People's Vote".

There could also be attempts to strengthen protections for environmental and workers' rights. 

An earlier Brexit text agreed by Johnson's predecessor Theresa May was rejected three times by MPs earlier this year.

source: news.abs-cbn.com