MOSCOW - Russia registered more than 10,000 new coronavirus infections on Friday, as Moscow unveils mass antibody testing and a national lockdown eases.
Health officials reported 10,598 new infections in the last 24 hours, bringing the country's total to 262,843, the second-highest in the world after the United States.
Russia says its high number of cases is due in part to a massive testing campaign that has seen more than six million tests carried out.
Moscow accounts for roughly half of all infections and the city said it would be launching mass voluntary tests for antibodies from Friday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin this week announced that a nationwide lockdown aimed at slowing the spread of the virus would be eased, even as health officials record a steady increase in new cases.
Despite its high number of cases, Russia's official coronavirus fatality rate is low in comparison to countries like the United States, Britain, Italy and Spain.
The country reported 113 new coronavirus deaths Friday, bringing Russia's total to 2,418.
Authorities say this is because Russia was able to learn lessons from the experiences of western Europe, moving quickly to isolate travellers and people at risk, and launch a vast campaign to test and quarantine those infected.
But critics have cast doubt on the figures, accusing the authorities of under-counting by blaming virus-related deaths on other causes.
Agence France-Presse
“Everybody hopes for seasonality” when it comes to the coronavirus pandemic, Peter Juni of the University of Toronto acknowledged. Maybe, just maybe, the summer will diminish the spread of COVID-19.
But a new study, by Juni, an epidemiologist, and his colleagues in Canada and Switzerland, offers very little encouragement for warm-weather worshippers. In countries around the world, his research found, variations in heat and humidity had little to no effect on the spread of the pandemic. Differences in how the disease spread were instead strongly associated with public health measures like social distancing and school closures.
Several other studies have found or projected modest effects of warmer climates or the increase of sunlight in diminishing the spread of the coronavirus, but all have emphasized the need for public health interventions.
One reason is that most of the world’s population has no immunity to the virus. “This means the virus doesn’t need favorable conditions” to spread, Juni said.
He and his colleagues did a forward-looking study in which they picked 144 countries or “geopolitical areas” around the world and established the conditions that prevailed from March 7-13 in terms of temperature, humidity and public health measures.
Then they followed those countries and how cases of COVID-19 grew during the subsequent period of March 21-27, after a 14-day incubation period for infections during the earlier period to cause disease.
The regions varied from Canada to the tropics, but no effect for temperature was found. Humidity had a very weak connection to diminished spread, they found. But by far the most important in associations with a diminished spread of the disease were school closings, social distancing and restrictions on large gatherings.
“In our study,” the researchers wrote, “only public health interventions were consistently associated with reduced epidemic growth, and the greater the number of co-occurring public health interventions, the larger the reduction in growth.” The study was published Thursday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.
Other studies have reported mixed results on the effect of the weather and sunlight. One from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that humidity seemed to slow the spread of the virus. Qasim Bukhari, one of the authors of that study, said the new report was interesting although limited by the short time span it covered. He said he and his colleagues “also stressed in our work that public health interventions are very important.”
Mark Urban, an ecologist at the University of Connecticut, found summer weather, including ultraviolet light, had some effect on the virus and its spread but said “social interventions have by far the most important effect.”
And a short report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine concluded that summer was not likely to slow the virus significantly.
All of the studies acknowledge uncertainty and limitations in their findings. And none diminish the primacy of public health measures. Juni said that given the effectiveness of social restrictions, school-opening strategies should be very carefully planned and tested.
“We can’t have schools closed for more than a year and a half,” he said, but it is not yet known how best to reopen schools and what policies should be followed. Mistakes could mean that openings backfire, with devastating consequence for spread of the disease.
-James Gorman, The New York Times-
Four seconds of high-intensity exertion repeated periodically throughout the day may counteract some of the unhealthy metabolic consequences of sitting for hours, according to a surprising and timely new study of the potentially large benefits of diminutive workouts.
The study relied on a specialized type of stationary bicycle that few of us will have available at home, but its implications remain broadly applicable and suggest that even a few minutes — or seconds — of exercise each day could help substantially to bolster our health.
For most of us, sitting is our default posture and was, even before the shelter-at-home edicts took effect across the globe. Epidemiological studies indicate that most American adults sit for a least 10 hours a day, a total that is likely to have risen now that many of us are home all day.
The health effects of this inactivity can be considerable, with studies linking prolonged sitting to increased risks for heart disease, Type 2 diabetes and other metabolic disruptions. In particular, multiple hours of sitting can contribute to a later rise in the bloodstream of fatty acids, known as triglycerides, probably in part because muscles at rest produce less than contracting muscles do of a substance that breaks up triglycerides. High levels of triglycerides, in turn, are linked to an increased risk of heart disease and other metabolic problems.
In theory, exercise should help fight this problem, since it entails muscular contractions. But some experiments hint that one workout may not be enough. In studies conducted at the University of Texas at Austin in recent years, healthy young people who sat all day for the sake of science showed higher-than-normal levels of triglycerides in their blood the next day after a fatty meal. The sitting had left their metabolisms less able to break up and clear away the fat.
Even when the young people interrupted another full day of sitting with a 1-hour run, they continued to experience difficulties with fat metabolism the next day. The researchers speculated that the long hours of sitting may have changed the volunteers’ physiologies in ways that rendered them “resistant” to the expected, beneficial metabolic effects of physical activity.
Those studies had deployed a single moderately paced workout, however. Recently, the researchers began to wonder whether more-frequent, brief spurts of exercise throughout the day, especially if they were intense, may better stave off the undesirable effects of sitting.
So, for the new study, published in April in Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, the Texas scientists recruited eight healthy young people and asked them to spend a full day at the lab, rising only to eat or visit the bathroom. The next morning, the volunteers returned or a high-fat breakfast of melted ice cream and half and half, while the scientists monitored their bodies’ metabolic response during the next 6 hours.
Then, on a separate day, the volunteers sat again, except for a few seconds each hour, when they sprinted.
These sprints took place on an unusual type of stationary bicycle with a heavy flywheel and no resistance that has been used at the physiology lab to test the leg and lung power of professional athletes. In those tests, athletes generated a tsunami of power and achieved all-out exertion within about two seconds of pedaling.
The scientists reasoned that if athletes needed two seconds of pedaling to reach maximum exertion, the rest of us probably would require, say, twice as much. So, they asked their volunteers to clamber on the bikes and sprint as hard as possible for four seconds, then stop pedaling, rest for 45 seconds, and sprint again, repeating that sequence 5 times.
The volunteers completed these brief interval sessions once every hour for 8 hours, for a total of 160 seconds of actual exercise that day. Otherwise they sat, then returned the next day to down the unctuous breakfast shake.
Their metabolic responses differed this time, though, the researchers found. The volunteers arrived at the lab with lower blood levels of triglycerides to start with and burned more fat during the next 6 hours, so their triglycerides remained about 30 percent lower throughout the 6 hours of monitoring than on the morning after nonstop sitting.
The results suggest that frequent, intense and extremely abbreviated exercise “can undo” some effects of being sedentary, said Ed Coyle, a professor of kinesiology and health education at the University of Texas, who conducted the study with his graduate student Anthony Wolfe and others. (Coyle has equity in the company that manufactures the bicycles at his lab but said his stake did not influence the design of the study or reporting of results.)
This was a small, short-term study, and its results are limited. They do not tell us if the desirable metabolic outcomes after sprinting linger past the next day or whether 4-second intervals represent the right dose of exercise or merely the teensiest. The study also relied on an uncommon type of bicycle. Standard stationary bicycles or spin-class versions would likely require us to sprint for more than four seconds to reach an all-out exertion level, Coyle said. So would racing up and down stairs or jogging in place.
But the underlying theory of the study remains achievable, he adds. When you find yourself sitting for most of the day, try to rise frequently and move, preferably intensely, as often as possible and for as many seconds as you can manage.
2020 The New York Times Company
The coronavirus has killed so many people in Iran that the country has resorted to mass burials, but in neighboring Iraq, the body count is fewer than 100.
The Dominican Republic has reported nearly 7,600 cases of the virus. Just across the border, Haiti has recorded about 85.
In Indonesia, thousands are believed to have died of the coronavirus. In nearby Malaysia, a strict lockdown has kept fatalities to about 100.
The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious. Global metropolises like New York, Paris and London have been devastated, while teeming cities like Bangkok, Baghdad, New Delhi and Lagos have, so far, largely been spared.
The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when it’s safe to go out again.
There are already hundreds of studies underway around the world looking into how demographics, preexisting conditions and genetics might affect the wide variation in impact.
Many developing nations with hot climates and young populations have escaped the worst, suggesting that temperature and demographics could be factors. But countries like Peru, Indonesia and Brazil, tropical countries in the throes of growing epidemics, throw cold water on that idea.
Draconian social distancing and early lockdown measures have clearly been effective, but Myanmar and Cambodia did neither and have reported few cases.
One theory that is unproven but impossible to refute: Maybe the virus just hasn’t gotten to those countries yet. Russia and Turkey appeared to be fine until, suddenly, they were not.
“We are really early in this disease,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Research Institute. “If this were a baseball game, it would be the second inning, and there’s no reason to think that by the ninth inning the rest of the world that looks now like it hasn’t been affected won’t become like other places.”
Interviews with more than two dozen infectious disease experts, health officials, epidemiologists and academics around the globe suggest four main factors that could help explain where the virus thrives and where it doesn’t: demographics, culture, environment and the speed of government responses.
Each possible explanation comes with considerable caveats and confounding counter-evidence. If an aging population is the most vulnerable, for instance, Japan should be at the top of the list. It is far from it. Nonetheless, these are the factors that experts find the most persuasive.
THE POWER OF YOUTH
Many countries that have escaped mass epidemics have relatively younger populations.
Young people are more likely to contract mild or asymptomatic cases that are less transmissible to others, said Robert Bollinger, a professor of infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. And they are less likely to have certain health problems that can make COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, particularly deadly, according to the World Health Organization.
Africa — with about 45,000 reported cases, a tiny fraction of its 1.3 billion people — is the world’s youngest continent, with more than 60 percent of its population under age 25. In Thailand and Najaf, Iraq, local health officials found that the 20-to-29 age group had the highest rate of infection but often showed few symptoms.
By contrast, the national median age in Italy, one of the hardest-hit countries, is more than 45. The average age of those who died of COVID-19 there was around 80.
Younger people tend to have stronger immune systems, which can result in milder symptoms, said Josip Car, an expert in population and global health at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
CULTURAL DISTANCE
Cultural factors, like the social distancing that is built into certain societies, may give some countries more protection, epidemiologists said.
In Thailand and India, where virus numbers are relatively low, people greet each other at a distance, with palms joined together as in prayer. In Japan and South Korea, people bow, and long before the coronavirus arrived, they tended to wear face masks when feeling unwell.
In much of the developing world, the custom of caring for the elderly at home leads to fewer nursing homes, which have been tinder for tragic outbreaks in the West.
However, there are notable exceptions to the cultural-distancing theory. In many parts of the Middle East, such as Iraq and the Persian Gulf countries, men often embrace or shake hands on meeting, yet most are not getting sick.
HEAT AND LIGHT
The geography of the outbreak — which spread rapidly during the winter in temperate-zone countries like Italy and the United States and was virtually unseen in warmer countries such as Chad or Guyana — seemed to suggest that the virus did not take well to heat. Other coronaviruses, such as ones that cause the common cold, are less contagious in warmer, moist climates.
But researchers say the idea that hot weather alone can repel the virus is wishful thinking.
Some of the worst outbreaks in the developing world have been in places like the Amazonas region of Brazil, as tropical a place as any.
“The best guess is that summer conditions will help but are unlikely by themselves to lead to significant slowing of growth or to a decline in cases,” said Marc Lipsitch, director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University.
The virus that causes COVID-19 appears to be so contagious as to mitigate any beneficial effect of heat and humidity, said Dr. Raul Rabadan, a computational biologist at Columbia University.
But other aspects of warm climates, like people spending more time outside, could help.
“People living indoors within enclosed environments may promote virus recirculation, increasing the chance of contracting the disease,” said Car of Nanyang Technological University.
The ultraviolet rays of direct sunlight inhibit this coronavirus, according to a study by ecological modelers at the University of Connecticut. So surfaces in sunny places may be less likely to remain contaminated, but transmission usually occurs through contact with an infected person, not by touching a surface.
EARLY AND STRICT LOCKDOWNS
Countries that locked down early, like Vietnam and Greece, have been able to avoid out-of-control contagions, evidence of the power of strict social distancing and quarantines to contain the virus.
In Africa, countries with bitter experience with killers like HIV, drug-resistant tuberculosis and Ebola knew the drill and reacted quickly.
Airport staff from Sierra Leone to Uganda were taking temperatures (since found to be a less effective measure) and contact details and wearing masks long before their counterparts in the United States and Europe took such precautions.
Senegal and Rwanda closed their borders and announced curfews when they still had very few cases. Health ministries began contact tracing early.
Counterintuitively, some countries where authorities reacted late and with spotty enforcement of lockdowns appear to have been spared. Cambodia and Laos both had brief spates of infections when few social distancing measures were in place, but neither has recorded a new case in about three weeks.
ROLL OF THE DICE
Finally, most experts agree that there may be no single reason for some countries to be hit and others missed. The answer is likely to be some combination of the above factors as well as one other mentioned by researchers: sheer luck.
Countries with the same culture and climate could have vastly different outcomes if one infected person attends a crowded social occasion, turning it into what researchers call a superspreader event.
And when countries do all the wrong things and still end up seemingly not as battered by the virus as one would expect, go figure.
“In Indonesia, we have a health minister who believes you can pray away COVID, and we have too little testing,” said Dr. Pandu Riono, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Indonesia. “But we are lucky we have so many islands in our country that limit travel and maybe infection.
“There’s nothing else we’re doing right,” he added.
2020 The New York Times Company
LONDON - British pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca has partnered with the University of Oxford to develop and distribute a coronavirus vaccine being trialed in the UK, the pair announced Thursday.
Human trials of the vaccine developed by the university's Jenner Institute began last week, with hundreds of people volunteering to be part of the study that has received £20 million ($24.7 million, 22.6 million euros) in government funding.
"The collaboration aims to bring to patients the potential vaccine known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, being developed by the Jenner Institute and Oxford Vaccine Group, at the University of Oxford," said a joint statement.
"Under the agreement, AstraZeneca would be responsible for development and worldwide manufacturing and distribution of the vaccine."
Data from the first phase trial could be available next month, the statement said.
"Advancement to late-stage trials should take place by the middle of this year," it added.
The news comes after US scientists hailed the results of a major drug trial. People treated with Remdesivir recovered about 30 percent faster than those on a placebo.
Agence France-Presse
Adding to growing evidence that the novel coronavirus can spread through air, scientists have identified genetic markers of the virus in airborne droplets, many with diameters smaller than one-ten-thousandth of an inch.
That had been previously demonstrated in laboratory experiments, but now Chinese scientists studying real-world conditions report that they captured tiny droplets containing the genetic markers of the virus from the air in 2 hospitals in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak started.
Their findings were published Monday in the journal Nature.
It remains unknown if the virus in the samples they collected was infectious, but droplets that small, which are expelled by breathing and talking, can remain aloft and be inhaled by others.
“Those are going to stay in the air floating around for at least 2 hours,” said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech who was not involved with the Nature paper. “It strongly suggests that there is potential for airborne transmission.”
Marr and many other scientists say evidence is mounting that the coronavirus is being spread by tiny droplets known as aerosols. The World Health Organization has so far downplayed the possibility, saying that the disease is mostly transmitted through larger droplets that do not remain airborne for long, or through the touching of contaminated surfaces.
Even with the new findings, the issue is not settled. Although the coronavirus RNA — the genetic blueprint of the virus — was present in the aerosols, scientists do not know yet is whether the viruses remain infectious or whether the tests just detected harmless virus fragments.
“The missing piece is viable viral replication,” said Harvey V. Fineberg, who leads the Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. “Could you culture this virus from the air?”
In the Wuhan research, no viruses were detected in most of the public places they studied, including the residential building and the supermarket, although some levels were detected in crowded areas outside one of the hospitals and in the department stores.
“It was interesting to see there were measurable amounts,” Marr said. “I think it adds good evidence to avoid crowding.”
Kenneth Chang, The New York Times
PARIS - More than 1.5 million cases of the novel coronavirus have been registered worldwide, according to a tally compiled by AFP at 1:30 p.m Thursday from official sources.
Of the 1,502,478 infections, 87,320 people have died across 192 countries and territories since the epidemic first emerged in China late last year.
The tallies, using data collected by AFP from national authorities and information from the World Health Organization (WHO), probably reflect only a fraction of the actual number of infections. Many countries are only testing the most serious cases.
The United States, where the pandemic is spreading most rapidly, has recorded 432,132 cases, including 14,817 deaths.
Spain has declared 146,690 cases with 14,555 deaths, and Italy 139,422 infections with 17,669 deaths.
Europe remains the worst hit continent with 772,592 cases and 61,118 deaths.
Agence France-Presse
WASHINGTON - Back in late February, when the US thought it had sealed itself off from the coronavirus, a Chicago resident with mild respiratory symptoms went to pay his respects at a funeral as a friend of the family.
Three days later, he would celebrate at a birthday party with his own relatives.
The man, who was unaware he had the COVID-19 illness, set off a chain of transmissions that infected 15 other people, three of whom died, the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Wednesday.
The state of Illinois, of which Chicago is the biggest city, did not enact a lockdown order until weeks later on March 21 -- around a similar time to many other jurisdictions.
But the case is a telling example of how vital abiding by social distancing recommendations and lockdown orders are, the CDC said, as it revealed in a detailed report how the super spreading event happened.
'INDEX PATIENT'
It all started when the man, referred to as the "index patient," enjoyed a takeout meal using shared plates the night before the funeral with 2 members of another family he was friends with.
Over dinner, which lasted approximately 3 hours, and the funeral, which lasted about 2 hours and involved a shared "potluck-style" meal, the man reported embracing 4 people, including the 2 he met the night before to express condolences.
Three developed COVID-19 symptoms within 2 to 6 days, including one who had to be hospitalized and eventually died almost a month later.
The other two2 were managed as outpatients and recovered.
While the patient who eventually died was being treated in intensive care, they were visited by another member of their family who had been in contact with the index patient at the funeral.
This individual, who did not wear protective gear, later developed a cough and fever but recovered.
CHAIN REACTION
Three days after the funeral, the index patient went to a birthday party that was attended by nine members of his own family, and came into close contact with all of them over the course of three hours.
Seven subsequently developed COVID-19 3 to 7 days after the event. Two were hospitalized and required ventilation, and both died.
Two people involved in caring for one of the people who died, including a family member and a home care professional who was not related, both developed probable COVID-19.
The family member likely transmitted the virus to another relative, who did not attend the party.
Three of the birthday attendees who had symptoms went to church six days after developing their first symptoms, where they likely infected an unrelated health care professional.
The health care worker sat in close proximity and conversed with them over a period of 90 minutes.
The CDC wrote that the patients ranged in age from 5 to 86 years.
"Extended family gatherings (a birthday party, funeral, and church attendance), all of which occurred before major social distancing policies were implemented, might have facilitated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 beyond household contacts into the broader community," it said.
The story highlights just how contagious the virus is, with scientists still trying to understand better how it is transmitted.
Early on in the pandemic, it was said to be more contagious than the flu and less than measles -- though it isn't clear if this is really the case, and it may be just as or even more contagious than measles.
Respiratory droplets from coughing or sneezing that fell directly on a person or came from touching contaminated surfaces were thought to be the main driver, but growing scholarship suggests an infected person breathing and speaking may be enough.
What's more, a very high portion of infected people are now believed to be asymptomatic -- between 25 and 50 percent -- strengthening the argument for everyone to cover their faces while outdoors, which is the updated CDC advice.
Agence France-Presse
PARIS - One day, the battle against the novel coronavirus will be won. But the world that emerges may look very different from the one we lived in before the pandemic began.
Over 60,000 people have lost their lives to COVID-19 and there are more than a million confirmed cases with the outbreak yet to reach its peak across the developed and emerging world.
But on top of the tragic human toll, the coronavirus also threatens incalculable social, economic and political costs, and to trigger a wave of change that will shape our world for years to come.
The shutdown imposed to slow the spread of the virus could push some economies into full-scale meltdown. Financial markets may never recover to pre-crisis levels.
Restrictions on movement will help some governments tighten autocratic control, and civil liberties could be eroded in the name of gaining information on virus spread.
Many are already questioning the merit of multilateral organizations such as the WHO or the United Nations given the perceived lack of a coordinated, global response to an unprecedented health crisis.
The changes could be immense, say analysts, but also unpredictable.
'RE-SHAPE RELATIONS'
"Is it going to be a headline or is it a trendline?" asked Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Are we witnessing an event that is going to reshape international relations and relations among states?"
Much will depend on how long national economies manage to withstand the storm, and the performance of governments in tackling the threat.
China, where the virus is believed to have originated, proudly claims to have quelled the outbreak.
US President Donald Trump initially appeared to shrug off the seriousness of the threat and is now faced with a full-scale crisis.
While the official figures from India remain far less grim than in the West, there is anxiety that much worse is to come.
"Is this leadership or absence of leadership going to provide opportunities or vulnerabilities to various countries around the world?" asked Miller.
'POTENTIAL FOR UNREST'
The world's wealthiest powers enjoy a cushion that will allow them to keep the economy ticking over during the crisis, to compensate workers laid off, and to resume economic activity quickly afterwards.
But in poorer countries with no such protections, the resulting deprivation risks driving people onto the street.
"The potential for widespread social unrest in countries that have not provided a social safety net for those losing their jobs during this crisis strikes me as very real, with possible repercussions for governance and more," said Joshua Geltzer, visiting professor of law at Georgetown University.
Countries like Russia and Turkey, led by the same strongmen for two decades, will be hoping that their measures will be enough to spare them the worst of the virus and any political consequences.
But to battle the outbreak, even the most democratic societies have had to restrict civil liberties on an unprecedented scale and bid farewell to border-free travel for the foreseeable future.
"All the global elite who had lectured for a long time about liberalism and globalization were the first to close their borders," pointed out Bakary Sambe, director of the Timbuktu Institute in Dakar.
Pratap Bhanu Mehta, professor of political sciences at India's Ashoka University, said there risked being conflicts over trading systems.
"There is a potential to accelerate deglobalization in the wake of the crisis."
'LEGITIMACY OF INSTITUTIONS'
The European Union, in a year that it wanted to show solidity after Brexit, has been sorely tested.
States adopted policies unilaterally, there have been vast discrepancies in preparedness, and one member, Hungary, adopted policies which critics say border on authoritarianism.
The EU is far from the only international institution to feel the heat.
The G20, chaired this year by Saudi Arabia, has struggled to make itself heard. And the observers say the UN, through its World Health Organisation (WHO), has yet to coordinate a truly global outbreak response.
The WHO "seems more and more sidelined," said Barthelemy Courmont, researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Research (IRIS) in Paris.
"What legitimacy will we grant to international institutions if they do not have the authority to manage crises? The global system we live in will emerge somewhat weakened from this crisis."
Agence France-Press
WASHINGTON- The coronavirus pandemic's economic fallout could cause China's growth to come to a standstill while driving 11 million more people in East Asia into poverty, the World Bank warned Monday.
The pandemic is causing "an unprecedented global shock, which could bring growth to a halt and could increase poverty across the region," said Aaditya Mattoo, World Bank chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific.
Even in the best-case scenario, the region will see a sharp drop in growth, with China's expansion slowing to 2.3 percent from 6.1 percent in 2019, according to a report on the pandemic's impact on the region.
With two-fifths of the world's population under some form of lockdown that's caused the shuttering of businesses and a slowdown in transportation to try to contain the virus, the country where the outbreak originated may escape a recession but will nonetheless suffer a sharp slowdown.
Just 2 months ago, the World Bank's economists forecast China would grow by 5.9 percent this year, which would have been its worst performance since 1990.
Now the world's second-largest economy faces a more dire outlook, reflected in the record contraction in manufacturing activity in February and industrial production that fell for the first time in 30 years.
The East Asia and Pacific region, excluding China, could see growth slow to 1.3 percent in the baseline or contract 2.8 percent in the more pessimistic scenario as compared to 5.8 percent last year, the report said.
"The pandemic is profoundly affecting the region's economies, but the depth and duration of the shock are unusually uncertain," the report said, noting the region already was unsettled by trade conflict with the United States.
"Containment of the pandemic would allow recovery, but the risk of durable financial stress is high even beyond 2020," the World Bank warned. "Most vulnerable are countries that rely heavily on trade, tourism, and commodities; that are heavily indebted; and that rely on volatile financial flows."
WORSENING POVERTY
Even in the best case, marked by a sharp slowdown followed by a strong recovery, 24 million fewer people in the region will escape poverty, the report said.
But an additional 11 million people could descend into poverty under the more negative outlook, where there is a severe economic contraction followed by a sluggish recovery.
Mattoo said the 17 countries in the region key to global value chains and accounting for 70 percent of world trade "have all been affected" and now have some of the world's highest numbers of COVID-19 cases.
"In this interdependent world where our economic destinies are intertwined, there's going to be mutual amplification, because the shock is simultaneously affecting all these important countries," he told reporters.
"That makes it particularly costly in economic terms."
The World Bank called for strong action, with the priority first on containment but also on measures to cushion the shock to households of lost wages.
Mattoo said it is not too late to follow Korea's example to ramp up testing and containment so that economies can begin to return to normal more quickly.
"This is not rocket science. With help even poorer countries can do it."
Agence France-Presse
MILAN - Italian researchers are looking at whether a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 may be a signal that the new coronavirus might have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought.
Adriano Decarli, an epidemiologist and medical statistics professor at the University of Milan, said there had been a "significant" increase in the number of people hospitalized for pneumonia and flu in the areas of Milan and Lodi between October and December last year.
He told Reuters he could not give exact figures but "hundreds" more people than usual had been taken to hospital in the last 3 months of 2019 in those areas - 2 of Lombardy's worst hit cities - with pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, and some of those had died.
Decarli is reviewing the hospital records and other clinical details of those cases, including people who later died at home, to try to understand whether the new coronavirus epidemic had already spread to Italy back then.
"We want to know if the virus was already here in Italy at the end of 2019, and - if yes - why it remained undetected for a relatively long period so that we could have a clearer picture in case we have to face a second wave of the epidemic," he said.
The World Health Organization has said the new coronavirus and COVID-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the outbreak was first reported in Wuhan in central China in December.
Decarli said once his research was concluded, local health authorities might decide to request authorization to exhume bodies of people with suspect symptoms.
Other experts cast doubt on the hypothesis that the new virus could have been circulating in Europe before the end of 2019.
"I think it extremely unlikely that the virus was present in Europe before January," said Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at Britain's University of East Anglia who has been tracking the evolving pandemic.
Hunter said that unless Italian scientists get positive results from samples taken and stored at that time, then the suggestion should not be given credence.
He added that, given what we know about how infectious the virus is, and the ratio of patients showing no symptoms compared with those that get sick, "it is inconceivable that we would not have had a pretty major epidemic in Europe much earlier if these cases had in fact been COVID-19".
HIGHEST DEATH TOLL
Italy, which now has the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in the world, recorded its first case of infection on Feb. 21, though some scientists think the virus began circulating in the country at least a month earlier.
"The virus was already here in the second half of January," said Massimo Galli, head of the infectious disease unit at Milan's Sacco hospital and a professor at the department of biomedical and clinical sciences at the University of Milan.
He said, however, that the probability of the virus circulating in Italy before January was "very low."
Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research in Milan, said some family doctors in Lombardy had reported unusual cases of pneumonia late last year that now looked potentially suspicious.
He said among those were several cases of bilateral pneumonia - which means both lungs are affected - in the areas of Gera D'Adda and Crema in late November and December, with high fever, cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing.
"None of these cases have been documented as COVID-19 because there was no evidence yet of the existence of COVID-19," he said.
Remuzzi said that if evidence of COVID-19 cases in Italy as far back as November was confirmed, this may signal that the virus can go undetected for months.
He said some reports in scientific journals had also led other scientists to question whether the virus may have emerged in China as early as October.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW DELHI - Hundreds of millions of Indians were ordered into lockdowns Sunday in the world's second-most populous nation, which stepped up measures to halt the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus.
Crowds gathered on balconies across the country in the afternoon to clap, ring bells and blow horns in a heart-warming tribute to the health care and emergency workers on the frontlines battling the COVID-19 illness.
The raft of state shutdowns in the nation of 1.3 billion people came during a 14-hour voluntary curfew that Prime Minister Narendra Modi said would test India's ability to fight the pandemic.
"This is the start of a long fight," Modi tweeted as the curfew came to an end.
"The people of this country have announced it today that we can take on and defeat as big a challenge as possible if we decide."
Normally bustling streets in the capital New Delhi and financial hub of Mumbai were mostly deserted as many people stayed indoors.
'STAY AT HOME'
With the end of the voluntary curfew the government appealed to states late Sunday to impose mandatory lockdowns on virus-affected districts.
A growing number of states and territories, including the capital New Delhi, heeded the call and banned all activity except for essential services.
Delhi, with a population of almost 20 million, will seal its land borders from early Monday, and close shops and private sector offices until March 31.
Other states imposed partial or full lockdowns, with many closing borders, restricting movement and halting most public transport.
Some, like West Bengal with a population of more than 90 million, locked down major cities but not rural areas.
Indian Railways cancelled all services except suburban and goods trains until March 31.
Incoming international flights were already barred for a week, while schools, entertainment facilities and monuments such as the iconic Taj Mahal have been shut.
The curfew -- seen as a rehearsal for longer lockdowns -- came as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India surged past 360, with seven deaths.
Experts say a lack of testing may be hiding the true scale of the health crisis.
Testing for the virus was expanded to private laboratories and will now include asymptomatic people who had contact with confirmed cases, officials said.
'WE ARE AT WAR'
Modi urged Indians to thank medical workers and other emergency personnel by clapping or banging pots and pans for five minutes at 5:00 pm -- and many in the cities responded with enthusiasm.
Neighbourhoods silent during the curfew burst into life as the sounds of clapping, cookware being hit and the bellow of conch shells -- an auspicious Hindu ritual -- filled the air from people's balconies.
"The enemy is there, invisible and elusive... We are trying to defeat it. We are at war, a public health war certainly," schoolteacher Sumita Dutta told AFP in Kolkata as she clapped her hands in front of her home.
South Asia is the world's most densely populated region, while India has an overburdened public health system that suffers from a lack of doctors and hospitals.
Experts warn that the country would not escape the highly infectious disease.
"We are in for a very long fight," warned virologist Shahid Jameel of biomedical research charity Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance.
In Mumbai's Dharavi, one of the world's biggest slums, residents said there was growing fears about the virus.
"We live by adjusting with each other in small confined spaces. But now we are not allowed to step out at all and police officials are enforcing it strictly. So it's a challenging situation," Raju Shaikh told AFP.
Agence France-Presse
WASHINGTON - Rand Paul, a critic of emergency coronavirus spending, has become the first US senator to test positive for COVID-19, the Republican lawmaker's office said Sunday.
A statement from a staff member said he was in quarantine but remained asymptomatic.
As US senators work on a multi-trillion-dollar rescue package to help the US economy hit hard by the pandemic, Paul has at least twice voted against such emergency funding.
Paul, who is 57, is the third member of Congress known to have contracted the virus. Two members of the House of Representatives -- Ben McAdams of Utah and Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida -- earlier announced positive tests.
Paul, the junior senator from Kentucky, "is feeling fine and is in quarantine. He is asymptomatic and was tested out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and events," said the statement from his staff.
It said Paul was not aware of any direct contact with an infected person. It added that the senator's Washington office had begun operating remotely 10 days ago, so "virtually no staff has had contact with Senator Paul."
It was not clear exactly when he was tested.
On Wednesday, Paul voted against a $100 billion stimulus package designed to combat the virus.
The bill, which passed by a 90-8 vote, called for free virus testing and paid sick leave for some displaced workers.
The senator, a deficit hawk, argued that Congress should pay for the measure by cutting funding for wars or other "frivolous" programs, the Louisville, Kentucky Courier-Journal reported.
He urged his colleagues to "stop being a rubber stamp for wasteful spending."
Earlier in the month, he opposed a bipartisan $8 billion plan for emergency coronavirus funding.
Agence France-Presse
BRUSSELS - The number of coronavirus disease cases recorded in Belgium surged past 2,000 on Friday and the number of deaths jumped by 16 to 37, authorities said.
According to the country's national crisis center, 462 new confirmed cases of the virus have been reported, bringing the total to 2,257 in a country of 11.4 million people.
Two-thirds of the new cases overnight were in Dutch-speaking Flanders, in northern Belgium.
Emmanuel Andre, a spokesman for the crisis center, said Belgium was better prepared than Italy had been when it became the focus of the European outbreak, but that hospitals would need more space for the most serious cases.
In the past 24 hours, another 203 people have been admitted to hospital in Belgium, and 164 of them will require intensive care, such as breathing assistance.
"The average age of those hospitalized is around 60," he said. "In Belgium, we have 1,900 beds equipped with ventilators, and places are being set up today to increase this number."
"We are expecting demand to increase in the coming days," Andre warned.
Europe is now the epicenter of the pandemic that emerged in China in December, with Italy now the hardest country.
Belgium is now one of several European countries to order a national lockdown, although one less sternly enforced than in neighboring France -- and with more exceptions.
Already, bars and restaurants are shut and many people have been asked to work from home and to avoid socializing and crowds, but officials expect the measures to tighten.
"Everyone should respect these measures, and in my opinion, exceptions to the rules will come to an end in the coming days," another crisis center spokesman Benoit Ramacker said.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
WASHINGTON — A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system.
The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Donald Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector.
Among the “additional key federal decisions” listed among the options for Trump was invoking the Defense Production Act of 1950, a Korean War-era law that authorizes a president to take extraordinary action to force American industry to ramp up production of critical equipment and supplies such as ventilators, respirators and protective gear for health care workers.
“Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including PPE and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.” PPE refers to personal protective equipment.
The plan continued: “State and local governments, as well as critical infrastructure and communications channels, will be stressed and potentially less reliable. These stresses may also increase the challenges of getting updated messages and coordinating guidance to these jurisdictions directly.”
The plan, which was unclassified but marked “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release,” was shared with The New York Times as Trump escalated his efforts to curb the spread of the virus. After weeks of playing down the seriousness of the pandemic, saying it would miraculously disappear, Trump began shifting to a more sober tone during a news conference Friday announcing the national emergency.
Much of the plan is bureaucratic in nature, describing coordination among agencies and actions that in some cases have already been taken, like urging schools to close and large events to be canceled. But its discussion of the Defense Production Act came as lawmakers and others urged Trump to invoke its powers.
“While the administration’s response has so far lacked the urgency this crisis has called for, there are still steps you can take to mitigate the damage,” Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., wrote in a letter to Trump on Tuesday. “Invoking the powers vested in the DPA will enable the federal government to step up and take the type of aggressive steps needed in this time of uncertainty.”
Another letter sent last week by 57 House Democrats led by Rep. Andy Levin of Michigan made similar points: “During World War II, our country adapted to the demands of the time to produce mass quantities of bombers, tanks, and many smaller items needed to save democracy and freedom in the world. We know what the demands of this time are, and we must act now to meet these demands.”
Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., said that Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper told him on Tuesday that the Pentagon would provide federal health workers with 5 million respirator masks and 2,000 specialized ventilators. “The American public is on wartime footing in terms of battling the spread of this disease, and the Pentagon has to be part of the effort to help protect the health and safety of the American people,” Reed said.
But Trump said on Tuesday that he was not ready to invoke the Defense Production Act. “We’re able to do that if we have to,” he told reporters. “Right now, we haven’t had to, but it’s certainly ready. If I want it, we can do it very quickly. We’ve studied it very closely over two weeks ago, actually. We’ll make that decision pretty quickly if we need it. We hope we don’t need it. It’s a big step.”
Passed in 1950 shortly after US troops went to war defending South Korea against an invasion from North Korea, the Defense Production Act was based on powers used during World War II and authorized the president to require businesses to prioritize and accept contracts necessary for national defense.
Over the years, its scope has been expanded to include domestic preparedness and national emergencies. A president can make direct loans or loan guarantees and purchase commitments, subsidies or other incentives to influence industry to help in times of crisis.
Other key decisions outlined as options for the president include distributing medical supplies and equipment from the Strategic National Stockpile, providing money to states to help them meet demands caused by the coronavirus outbreak and prioritizing the distribution of essential resources to focus on areas most in need.
“The spread and severity of COVID-19 will be difficult to forecast and characterize,” the government plan said. It warned of “significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual US consumers.”
The New York Times Company
SYDNEY - Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Wednesday declared a "human biosecurity emergency" and said the country's citizens should abandon all overseas travel because of the coronavirus epidemic that he warned could last at least 6 months.
The formal declaration gives the government the power to close off cities or regions, impose curfews and order people to quarantine, if deemed necessary to contain the spread of the virus.
The upgrade in official advice to an unprecedented "Level 4: Do not travel" to any country in the world, was accompanied by a ban on any non-essential indoor gatherings of more than 100 people.
"Life is changing in Australia, as it is changing all around the world," Morrison said during a televised news conference. "Life is going to continue to change, as we deal with the global coronavirus. This is a once in a hundred year type event."
Australia has recorded more than 500 coronavirus infections and 6 deaths, a relatively small number compared to other countries, but officials are growing increasingly concerned about the prospect of an exponential rise in cases.
New South Wales, the country's most populous state, reported its biggest 1-day surge in new cases on Wednesday, along with the country's latest death, an 86-year-old man who died in a Sydney hospital.
Morrison said the tighter ban on indoor social gatherings, down to 100 people from 500 people, did not include essential services like schools, public transport and shopping centers.
The Australian leader cited expert health guidance as the rationale for keeping schools open, a strategy that has been questioned by some experts. Several private schools have made the unilateral decision to close ahead of the upcoming Easter break.
Morrison reiterated the need for social distancing and good hand hygiene to curb the spread of the virus and announced restricted access to aged care homes.
Anybody who travels during a Level 4 ban is warned that the Australian government may not be able to assist if they get into trouble while abroad, according the government's official SmartTraveller website. It also recommends people already in a "do not travel" area consider leaving.
Shortly before Morrison's statement, the government unveiled a A$715 million ($430 million) aid package for airlines, including waivers on domestic air traffic control fees. Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd has suspended all international flights from March 30 to June 14, while Qantas Airways Ltd has cut its international capacity by 90 percent.
The widening restrictions on travel and domestic movement are expected to take a significant toll on Australia's tourism, retail and entertainment sectors.
Economists are predicting the country will slip into its first recession in nearly 3 decades in the first half of 2020, prompting a rapid jump in unemployment.
'IT'S UN-AUSTRALIAN'
The expectations have weighed on Australia's financial markets, with the local share market falling more than 6 percent on Wednesday. Earlier this week, the Australian share market posted its biggest 1-day loss since 1987.
Morrison has already flagged a stimulus package worth around A$17 billion and said on Wednesday the government was "considering quite extensive further economic measures" to dull the impact on the economy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia this week pumped liquidity into money markets and said it will make a monetary policy announce on Thursday at 0330 GMT.
However, while the epidemic is expected to crimp consumer spending in the long run, data from the official statistics agency released on Wednesday showed a 0.4 percent rise in retail sales in February as people bought up staples in preparation for shortages.
The country's major grocers, Coles Group Ltd and Woolworths Group Ltd, have increased sales restrictions in response to the panic buying on goods including toilet paper, milk, meat, flour, rice, hand sanitizer, eggs and frozen vegetables.
They have also introduced exclusive shopping sessions for the elderly and the disabled early in the day, when stores have been restocked.
Morrison issued blunt advice on Wednesday that the hoarding was unnecessary and counter-productive.
"Stop doing it. It’s ridiculous," he said. "It’s un-Australian, and it must stop."
source: news.abs-cbn.com
Faced with a virus that won’t slow down, the world itself moved Sunday to come to a near halt.
One after another, countries imposed extraordinary measures as they raced to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Schools were closed and restaurants shuttered. Quarantines were mandated and travel severely limited.
Austria banned gatherings of more than 5 people and imposed steep fines for those who disobeyed a far-reaching curfew.
Ireland closed its pubs.
And in France, after the government delivered a warning to the French to show more discipline — “We have seen too many people in cafes and restaurants,” Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said sternly on Saturday night — the message also seemed to be taking hold. On Sunday, the cafes were abandoned.
In Spain, the streets emptied on Sunday, a day after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez ordered all citizens to stay indoors, with exemptions only for exceptional circumstances.
“The majority of the Spanish population wants to overcome this virus as soon as possible,” Sánchez said, “so I’m convinced the majority will comply.”
Globally, there are almost 150,000 confirmed cases of infection, according to the World Health Organization. More than 5,000 people have died.
Europe, the WHO said, is the new epicenter of an epidemic that began in China. On Sunday, Italian officials reported that the number of deaths there had risen to 1,809, a 25 percent increase over the day before and the largest one-day rise yet seen in any country.
Throughout Europe, the squares and stadiums were empty, the churches unpopulated. Even the Vatican was forced to abandon a long and venerated tradition, announcing that its services during the week before Easter, which usually draw tens of thousands of people, would not be open to the public next month.
The restrictions were hardly limited to Europe.
As Americans were warned that they may need to “hunker down” in the weeks ahead, South Africa declared a national state of disaster, closing schools, shutting down ports and banning gatherings of more than 100 people. South African citizens returning from some high-risk countries will be tested and face quarantines.
And China is toughening its rules for international arrivals, requiring that all people coming to Beijing from overseas spend the mandatory 14-day isolation at a quarantine site that they will be required to pay for.
In the Philippines, the densely populated capital, Manila, went under lockdown on Sunday, raising fears about the government’s intentions. The authorities sought to assure citizens that the heavy presence of security forces did not herald a return to martial law.
Elsewhere, some governments were taking a less drastic approach — drawing some criticism that they were being lackadaisical.
While large gatherings are being suspended in much of the world to reduce the speed of the coronavirus' spread, in Mexico, the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has declined to follow suit, saying it does not want to act prematurely.
Last week, a Mexican health official pointed out that his country was preparing for a tourism season coinciding with Easter vacations and spring break.
“Restricting international travel to Mexico is not planned, nor is it being considered,” he said.
The government of Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson, too, has come under fire for its relatively relaxed attitude to the epidemic. But on Sunday, it appeared that Britain would align itself with other countries’ approach.
Under pressure to impose tougher restrictions, the authorities said they would ask Britons over age 70 to self-isolate for up to four months. The government is also expected to ban large gatherings starting next week.
Much of the world’s focus has remained on Italy, the hardest hit country outside China. Despite stringent restrictions on movement, Italy is still reeling.
China’s highest daily toll was on Feb. 13, when the country reported 254 new deaths, according to the World Health Organization.
The cases of infected in Italy now tops 24,700, even with the entire country locked down for a week.
Spain appeared close behind, with the government reporting about 8,000 people infected and almost 300 dead.
In the center of Madrid, police patrolled the streets, with few cars passing along its main artery, Castellana Avenue. In Barcelona, the Gothic Quarter was empty, and private security kept anyone from entering the main cathedral.
With governments following their own playbooks — or, it sometimes appeared, improvising in the face on an assault the likes of which virtually no one alive has ever seen — the restrictions on citizens varied greatly, even when only a barrier-free border separated them.
And many people remained confused about what was still allowed.
In Spain, while bakeries and small supermarkets stayed open — deemed providers of essential food supplies — some shopkeepers were uncertain where they stood.
“Is jamón a primary need?” asked Pol Aranda, a seller of Spanish ham at a gourmet store in Barcelona. On Sunday, police ordered him to close.
In Paris, at a bakery near Place de la Nation, several dozen customers were jammed in, oblivious to any social-distancing rules.
“We can’t live without bread here,” said Bruno Lanterne, 55, a hairdresser, as he left the bakery, two baguettes tucked under his arm. “You can’t take that away from the French.”
France announced on Saturday the closing of all nonessential businesses, including restaurants, bars and movie theaters, after a sharp uptick in infections. The number of cases there passed 5,420 on Sunday, with 127 deaths. On Saturday, 300 coronavirus patients there were in critical condition — half of them under 60 years of age.
On Sunday, France’s transportation minister said the country would also begin reducing plane, train and bus service between cities.
LVMH, the French company known for luxury items like Louis Vuitton bags, said Sunday that it would start producing mass quantities of hand sanitizer and give it to French health authorities. The company said in a statement that it would use the facilities where it produces fragrances under the Christian Dior, Givenchy and Guerlain labels.
And in the Netherlands, the government announced a lockdown that will last until April 6. Schools and child care facilities will be closed. So will restaurants, cafes, gyms and sporting clubs.
As the coronavirus has spread, it has infected not just people but whole societies, leaving them with a sense of insecurity, fear and fragmentation. Modern Europe has long prided itself on erasing borders, but now Europeans are back to building them.
They are being told to hide away and to place, in effect, borders between themselves and their fellow citizens, even as actual barriers go up between countries.
Germany will close its borders with Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and Switzerland in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the country’s interior minister said on Sunday. The move follows those of several other European Union member states in restricting freedom of movement across the Continent.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
