With eye on US, China to revamp top tier of diplomats-sources

BEIJING - China is expected to announce a reshuffle of its top diplomats at an annual meeting of parliament in March, aiming to deal with US President Donald Trump's growing suspicion of Beijing, several sources familiar with the plan said.

The sources, including foreign diplomats, told Reuters that Wang Qishan, a close ally of President Xi Jinping, will likely become vice president with a portfolio specifically focused on handling ties with Washington. He would report directly to Xi.

Current Foreign Minister Wang Yi will probably become a state councilor, replacing current top diplomat and State Councillor Yang Jiechi, who has been promoted to the Communist Party's 25-member politburo, the sources said.

State councilors, who report to the Cabinet, are more senior than the ministers responsible for the same portfolio.

Wang Yi could also keep the foreign minister portfolio, the sources said.

Another possibility was that Song Tao, head of the Communist Party's international affairs department and close to Xi, could become foreign minister, the sources said. Song is a career diplomat who has worked in India and the Philippines and speaks good English, diplomats who have met him say.

Yang, who joined the politburo in October, could become a vice premier with responsibility for foreign affairs, or become a deputy head of China's parliament, which would mean he could deal directly with the US Congress, the sources said.

Effectively Wang Qishan will be China's senior-most diplomat, then Yang and then Wang Yi.

"There will be three top diplomats," one of the sources told Reuters, referring to the three officials. "The United States will be a focus."

The sources cautioned that last minute changes are still possible and the positions won't become finalized until parliament nears the end of its annual session around mid-March.

All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity, either because they were not authorised to speak to foreign reporters or because of the sensitivity of discussing personnel appointments, considered secret until they are announced.

Neither the Communist Party's Organisation Department, which oversees personnel decisions, nor the State Council Information Office, which doubles as the party spokesman's office, responded to questions about the new diplomatic appointments.

TENSIONS WITH TRUMP

Despite a largely controversy-free visit by Trump to China in November, tensions, especially over trade, have worsened.

Trump has long sought a way to a more balanced trade relationship with China and threatened to impose a big "fine" against Beijing to protect American intellectual property. Trump has also been discussing imposing a tariff on imports of steel from China and other countries.

The role of Wang Qishan, who is not related to Foreign Minister Wang Yi, has been subject to intense speculation since he stepped down from the party's Standing Committee, the apex of power in China, in October.

Close to Xi and the man in charge of Xi's sweeping anti-corruption crackdown over the past five years, Wang Qishan, at 69, had reached the age at which top leaders technically have to step down.

As he's such an experienced politician, Xi is going to keep him on though, the sources said.

Known as "the firefighter" for his central role in tackling issues like corruption and domestic financial problems over the years, Wang also has experience dealing with the United States in his former role as a vice premier who led annual economic talks with Washington.

"Wang Qishan is a heavyweight. And the Americans respect him," a source with ties to the leadership told Reuters. "Hopefully he will be able to temper American hostility."

Diplomatic and US business sources say the United States has all but frozen a formal mechanism for talks on commercial disputes, because it is not satisfied with Beijing's efforts at opening its economy.

Any effort by China to elevate formal exchanges on trade issues, for example from a cabinet to vice presidential level, would require the White House's consent too.

State Councillor Yang is not seen to have achieved any breakthroughs in his unofficial role as China's special envoy to the Trump administration, despite speaking fluent English and being a former Chinese ambassador in Washington.

This is partly the reason Liu He, a top economic adviser of Xi's, is visiting Washington this week, said a senior Asian diplomat, citing conversations with Chinese officials.

"Yang will remain a senior diplomat but maybe with less of a United States role," said the diplomat.

DOUBLE ROLE

Wang Yi has been increasingly outspoken in his defence of Beijing's interests in recent years and is unusually media friendly for a Chinese official. The possibility he could take up two positions concurrently is unusual but not without precedent.

Defence Minister Chang Wanquan, for example, is also a state councilor.

There are currently 4 state councilors - 1 was sacked on Saturday for corruption - who have specific areas of responsibility, such as defense or foreign policy.

As a state councillor, Wang would also have responsibility for another tricky issue - self-ruled Taiwan, claimed by China as its own and which Beijing fears is on the road to formal independence.

Wang however has less experience dealing with the United States, and is a Japanese speaker rather than an expert in English.

"Promoting Wang would be a reward for him," said a Western diplomat, referring to Wang's spirited public defense of Chinese positions, ranging from the disputed South China Sea to rejecting accusations of Chinese spying on the African Union. 

source: news.abs-cbn.com

How serious is North Korea's nuclear threat?

US intelligence believes North Korea has now built a nuclear weapon small enough to fit onto a ballistic missile, making it a potent threat against neighbors and possibly the United States, the Washington Post reported Tuesday.

The country's nuclear advances have proceeded much more quickly than expected, but experts say North Korea still needs significant technological gains in order to become a full-fledged nuclear threat.

- Where does the North Korean nuclear capability stand? -

Pyongyang has conducted five nuclear bomb tests, with the last one, on September 9, 2016, roughly the size of the nuclear bomb the United States dropped on Nagasaki in 1945: 20-30 kilotons. That device, North Korea said, was going to be miniaturized and "standardized" for use on its ballistic missiles.

This year it demonstrated an ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in two tests. The most recent of them, on July 28, showed a missile with a theoretical range of 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles), meaning it could hit much of the United States and Europe, including population centers like New York and Paris.

- Is that enough to constitute an immediate threat? -

Besides reliable missiles with accurate targeting technology, Pyongyang needs to make sure its bombs would survive a 16,000 mile per hour (25,800 kilometer per hour) reentry from high in the atmosphere on an ICBM. It is possible their warheads are currently robust enough to survive the slower speeds of a shorter range missile that could strike Japan, but unlikely with an ICBM.

According to Michael Elleman, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the re-entry vehicle on the July 28 test likely broke into pieces and disintegrated.

Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford University nuclear expert, said it could be another five years before North Korea has an adequately robust reentry vehicle.

"I don't believe they have sufficient missile or nuclear test experience to field a nuclear warhead that is sufficiently small, light and robust to survive an ICBM delivery," Hecker told AFP.

- What other technical hurdles does NK face?-

Hecker, who has visited North Korea several times to view its nuclear activities, said its weapons program is deeply constrained by its small supply of uranium and plutonium, especially plutonium, which is preferable in an ICBM-mounted weapon. Combined, he said, its uranium and plutonium supplies are likely enough for 20-25 nuclear weapons.

But according to the Washington Post report, the US Defense Intelligence Agency believes the country already has up to 60 nuclear weapons in its stockpile.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Australia 'disrupts terror plot' to bring down airplane

SYDNEY - Australian authorities said Sunday they had stopped an allegedly Islamist-inspired "terrorist plot" to bring down an airplane with an improvised explosive, after four people were arrested in raids in Sydney.

"I can report last night that there has been a major joint counter-terrorism operation to disrupt a terrorist plot to bring down an airplane," Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told reporters.

Additional security has been put in place at all major domestic and international airports, with travellers told to arrive two hours early for screenings, he added.

Officials did not specify if the alleged plot targeted a domestic or international flight, but Sydney's Daily Telegraph reported that a local route had been the objective.

The four men, arrested in a series of raids across Sydney on Saturday, were allegedly linked to an "Islamic-inspired" plot, Australian Federal Police Commissioner Andrew Colvin said.

"In recent days, law enforcement has been become aware of information that suggested some people in Sydney were planning to commit a terrorist attack using an IED (improvised explosive device)," he told reporters.

But he added that police did not yet have "a great deal of information on the specific attack, the location, date or time", with the investigation expected to be "very long and protracted".

Turnbull said the alleged plan appeared to be "more in that category of an elaborate plot" rather than designed by a lone wolf, but added that the national terror alert level would remain at probable.

Canberra lifted the alert level in September 2014 and introduced new national security laws amid rising concerns over attacks by individuals inspired by organisations such as Islamic State.

Counter-terrorism police have also made a string of arrests since late 2014 across the nation and say they have prevented 12 terror attacks on home soil, before the latest announcement, in the past few years.

But several attacks have taken place, including a cafe siege in 2014 where two hostages were killed and the murder of a Sydney police employee in 2015 by a 15-year-old boy.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

US general says allies worry Russian war game may be 'Trojan horse'

BERLIN - US allies in eastern Europe and Ukraine are worried that Russia's planned war games in September could be a "Trojan horse" aimed at leaving behind military equipment brought into Belarus, the US Army's top general in Europe said on Thursday.

Russia has sought to reassure NATO that the military exercises will respect international limits on size, but NATO and US official remain wary about their scale and scope.


US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who heads US Army forces in Europe, told Reuters in an interview that allied officials would keep a close eye on military equipment brought in to Belarus for the Zapad 2017 exercise, and whether it was removed later.

"People are worried, this is a Trojan horse. They say, 'We're just doing an exercise,' and then all of a sudden they've moved all these people and capabilities somewhere," he said.

Hodges said he had no indications that Russia had any such plans, but said greater openness by Moscow about the extent of its war games would help reassure countries in eastern Europe.

NATO allies are nervous because previous large-scale Russian exercises employed special forces training, longer-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Such tactics were later used in Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and in its intervention in Syria, NATO diplomats say.

Hodges said the United States and its allies had been very open about a number of military exercises taking place across eastern Europe this summer involving up to 40,000 troops, but it remained unclear if Moscow would adhere to a Cold War-era treaty known as the Vienna document, which requires observers for large-scale exercises involving more than 13,000 troops.

Some NATO allies believe the Russian exercise could number more than 100,000 troops and involve nuclear weapons training, the biggest such exercise since 2013.

Russia has said it would invite observers if the exercise exceeded 13,000 forces.

Hodges said NATO would maintain normal rotations during the Russian war game, while carrying out previously scheduled exercises in Sweden, Poland and Ukraine.

The only additional action planned during that period was a six-week deployment of three companies of 120 paratroopers each to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for "low-level" exercises, Hodges said.

"We want to avoid anything that looks like a provocation. This is not going to be the 'Sharks' and the 'Jets' out on the streets," Hodges said in a reference to the gang fights shown in the 1961 film "West Side Story" set in New York City.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

China-built amphibious aircraft takes maiden flight: Xinhua

China's domestically developed AG600, the world's largest amphibious aircraft, took its maiden flight ahead of schedule on Saturday from the southern city of Zhuhai, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

The AG600 was designed to extinguish forest fires and carry out rescue missions at sea, Xinhua said on Saturday, adding that it could also "be used to monitor and protect the ocean."

The seaplane's maiden flight comes amid China's increasing assertiveness to its territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea where it is building airfields and deploying military equipment, rattling nerves in the Asia-Pacific region and the United States.

China is in the midst of a massive military modernization program, ranging from testing anti-satellite missiles to building stealth fighters and the country's first indigenous aircraft carrier, to add to an existing one bought from Ukraine.

Xinhua initially reported in March that the AG600 would take its maiden flight in late May.

(Reporting by Sue-Lin Wong; Editing by Ros Russell)

source: news.abs-cbn.com