SYDNEY -- Asian stocks took a breather at 18-month peaks on Wednesday having climbed for five straight sessions, while the British pound was licking its wounds as revived Brexit fears came back to bite it.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was dead flat in thin early trade, just off its highest since June last year.
Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.1 percent and away from its 2019 top, while Korean shares edged up 0.1 percent to an 8-month peak. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were little changed.
Upbeat economic news had helped the S&P 500 reach a record for the fourth straight session, building on its 27 percent gain this year. The Dow ended Tuesday up 0.19 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 0.07 percent and the Nasdaq 0.11 percent.
US housing starts were surprisingly strong in November, and building permits rose to the highest level since May 2007. Manufacturing output picked up more than expected as a strike at General Motors Co ended.
A run of better data recently has helped calm fears of recession while the phase one Sino-US deal on trade seems to have lifted some of the uncertainty on the global outlook.
The sea change was clear in BofA Global Research's latest survey of fund managers with recession concerns diving 33 percentage points to a net 68 percent of investors saying a recession is now unlikely in 2020.
Global growth expectations jumped 22 percentage points, marking the biggest 2-month rise on record. As a result, funds' allocation to global equities climbed 10 percentage points to a net 31 percent overweight, the highest level in a year.
THEN AGAIN...
Yet it might be too soon to declare an all-clear on the political front with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson upsetting markets by taking a hard line on Brexit talks.
Johnson will use the prospect of a Brexit cliff-edge at the end of 2020 to demand the EU give him a comprehensive free trade deal in less than 11 months.
The threat of a hard exit sent shivers through sterling, which slid 1.5 percent in its largest one-day fall this year.
The pound was last at $1.3110 having shed all the gains made on Thursday and Friday after it became clear that the Conservative Party was heading for a big win.
"We treat the risk of a hard Brexit as a 'tail risk' at this stage," said Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at CBA. "A UK-EU trade deal by end 2020, while difficult, is still possible."
"In our view GBP/USD will remain supported at around $1.3000-$1.3100 and upside contained near $1.3500 over the next several months."
Sterling's slide gave the dollar index a lift to 97.184 against a basket of currencies, extending a bounce from last week's five-month low of 96.588.
The euro also surged on the pound and was steady on the dollar at $1.1150. The yen was little changed at 109.52 per dollar.
Spot gold was idling at $1,475.90 per ounce, after a couple of very quiet sessions.
Oil prices eased from three-month highs as data showed U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly in the most recent week.
US crude fell 37 cents to $60.57 a barrel, while Brent crude futures had yet to trade.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
SHANGHAI -- Asian equities rose on Friday, bouncing from a 3-week low touched a day earlier, but gains were capped by persistent worries over the status of trade negotiations between China and the United States.
Early in the Asian trading day, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.12 percent. The index had fallen as much as 1.41 percent on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since Oct. 30, on concerns that US legislation on Hong Kong threatened to undermine trade talks between the world's two largest economies.
Australian shares were up 0.52 percent and Japan's Nikkei gained 0.1 percent.
Worries that a "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China might not occur until next year weighed on investor sentiment on Wall Street overnight, pulling the S&P 500 down 0.16 percent to 3,103.54, the Dow Jones down 0.2 percent to 27,766.29 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.24 percent lower to 8,506.21.
Those losses were tempered by China saying it was willing to work with the United States to resolve core trade concerns, and a report in the Wall Street Journal that China has invited top US trade negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks in Beijing.
"I was ready to give up on a trade deal yesterday. But it seems the Chinese haven't so I, we, mustn't," said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro.
But analysts at ANZ said in a morning note that whipsawing hopes over a deal were starting to wear on investors in the 16th month of the US-China trade war.
"It's fair to say that some signs of trade-headline fatigue are emerging in markets," analysts at ANZ said in a note.
While Asian stocks ticked higher, US Treasury yields were broadly unchanged after snapping three sessions of declines on Thursday.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was at 1.7723 percent, just a hair higher than its US close of 1.772 percent on Thursday. The policy-sensitive two-year yield, was at 1.6046 percent compared with a US close of 1.605 percent.
In currency markets, the safe-haven yen was a touch stronger, with the dollar dropping 0.05 percent to 108.58. The euro was up 0.05 percent at $1.1063.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of 6 major rivals, was unchanged at 97.993.
Oil prices retreated after hitting two-month highs on a Reuters report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are likely to extend existing output cuts until mid-2020.
US crude dipped 0.41 percent to $58.34 a barrel.
Spot gold edged up 0.04 percent to fetch $1,464.70 per ounce.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- Declining stocks on Wall Street weighed down a global equities gauge on Tuesday on lingering worries about the US-China trade war, while demand for US Treasuries and precious metals rose on recession fears.
The US yield curve inversion deepened to levels not seen since 2007 and gold futures rose as recession concerns gripped investors. Silver touched a two-year high.
Stocks opened higher on Wall Street after US President Donald Trump said China had offered to resume trade talks, though uncertainty prevailed as Beijing declined to confirm Trump's assertion.
US stocks initially opened higher, building on Monday's advance after Trump's comments. China's foreign ministry, however, reiterated on Tuesday that it had not received any recent U.S. telephone calls on trade.
"It is going to be pretty confusing and unfortunately, without some kind of a major backpedaling on trade... the economy is going to suffer," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management in Chicago.
Bank shares, which tend to weaken in lower rate and soft economic environments, lost 1 percent on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 120.93 points, or 0.47 percent, to 25,777.9, the S&P 500 lost 9.22 points, or 0.32 percent, to 2,869.16 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 26.79 points, or 0.34 percent, to 7,826.95.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.63 percent and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.03 percent.
Emerging market stocks rose 0.39 percent. Nikkei futures lost 0.66 percent.
The deepening yield curve inversion reflects investor nervousness about a recession and uncertainties over the trade conflict between China and the United States.
"It's not a sign of confidence in inflation or a pick-up in growth," said Mike Lorizio, head of Treasuries trading at Manulife Asset Management in Boston.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 21/32 in price to yield 1.4744 percent, from 1.544 percent late on Monday.
The yield curve inversion also pressured the dollar.
"You have seen a push deeper into inversion in the 2s/10s curve. Today, it's hard to put your finger on one specific driver of that inversion - though that might be contributing to the general sense of risk-off in the market," said Brian Daingerfield, macro strategist at RBS Securities.
The dollar fell against the safe-haven Japanese yen while the euro declined against the greenback.
The dollar index fell 0.05 percent, with the euro down 0.1 percent to $1.1089.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.35 percent versus the greenback at 105.77 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2285, up 0.57 percent on the day.
Emerging market currencies suffered across the globe, with the Colombian peso brushing against its record low near 3,478 per dollar.
Oil prices rose, buoyed by expectations of a drawdown in US crude inventories, though gains were capped by worries about a recession and uncertainty over a China-US trade deal.
US crude rose 3.45 percent to $55.49 per barrel and Brent was last at $59.91, up 2.06 percent on the day.
Spot gold added 1.1 percent to $1,542.70 an ounce. Spot silver gained 3.14 percent to $18.18 an ounce after touching its highest since September 2017.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- A gauge of global stock markets fell on Tuesday as the latest round of US-China trade talks began with a threat from President Donald Trump, while concerns over a no-deal Brexit continued to drag the British currency lower.
Trump warned China against waiting out his presidency before finalizing a trade deal, saying if he wins re-election in November 2020, the outcome could be no agreement or a harsher one.
Traders are also bracing for the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday, for which markets have already fully priced in a quarter of a percentage point rate cut. A 50 basis-point cut has a 1-in-5 chance, according to futures markets.
"If not for trade policy, we would not be using monetary policy in the way we are using it now," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.
"The real conundrum is if, in fact, the Fed cuts rates because they are seeing a global economic slowdown and no real inflation, then the administration becomes emboldened to fight this battle longer."
Major Wall Street stock averages ended slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23.33 points, or 0.09 percent, to 27,198.02, the S&P 500 lost 7.79 points, or 0.26 percent, to 3,013.18 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 19.72 points, or 0.24 percent, to 8,273.61.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 1.47 percent and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.39 percent.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.25 percent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.09 percent lower, while Nikkei futures fell 0.7 percent.
In currencies, sterling continued to stumble against the dollar after suffering its biggest decline in eight months on Monday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised on Tuesday to lead Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 "no matter what."
Many investors say a no-deal divorce from the EU would tip Britain into a recession and inject unwanted uncertainty into financial markets.
The pound fell to as much as $1.2121, its lowest since March 2017 and was last trading at $1.215, down 0.55 percent on the day.
"Sterling is moving due to local political developments - most importantly the idea that Prime Minister Johnson may not want to meet European leaders unless they change their position, which is a more hard-line stance than the market would have expected as recently as a week ago," said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.
The dollar index tracking the greenback against 6 major currencies rose 0.03 percent, with the euro up 0.09 percent to $1.1154.
US Treasury yields rose ahead of the Fed announcement after data showed consumer confidence rebounded in July to its strongest level since November.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes last fell 2/32 in price to yield 2.0597 percent, from 2.055 percent late on Monday.
In commodities trading, crude oil prices climbed as the Fed rate cut anticipation boosted demand expectations, but further price action hinges on the Fed's language.
"If the language we get from the Fed in post-meeting comments is on the conservative, rather than accommodative side, the U.S. dollar is likely to continue to remain strong and continue to present a headwind for an advance in oil," Harry Tchilinguirian, global oil strategist at BNP Paribas in London, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.
Prices rose further after API data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.
US crude rose 2.57 percent to $58.33 per barrel and Brent was last at $64.97, up 1.98 percent on the day.
Spot gold added 0.3 percent to $1,430.39 an ounce. Copper lost 1.33 percent to $5,938.00 a ton.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- A broad index of stocks around the world rose on Thursday as financial shares helped Wall Street's benchmark index advance, while oil prices fell on a forecast for weaker demand.
The US benchmark S&P 500 stock index notched a record closing high just shy of the 3,000 mark as financial shares were boosted by a jump in bond yields following soft demand in an auction of $16 billion in 30-year Treasuries.
A fall in biotech and pharmaceutical shares pulled down the Nasdaq, however, as the administration of US President Donald Trump withdrew a rule that would have required health insurers to pass on rebates from drugmakers.
But the withdrawal of the rule benefited shares of insurers, including UnitedHealth Group Inc, which boosted the Dow Jones Industrial Average above the 27,000 mark for the first time.
MSCI's gauge of global stocks gained 0.24 percent as US stocks mostly moved higher.
"Financial stocks are fine today as we're getting ready to enter the earnings season for banking," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia. "The 30-year Treasury auction is steepening the (yield) curve a bit."
"The pharma space is having a bad day," he added. "The market would be quite a bit higher if it weren't for that."
Oil prices retreated from early gains after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast less demand for its crude next year. Earlier in the session, they had hit their highest levels in more than a month.
US crude futures settled 23 cents lower, or 0.38 percent, at $60.20 a barrel. Brent crude futures settled down 49 cents, or 0.73 percent, at $66.52 a barrel.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 227.88 points, or 0.85 percent, to 27,088.08, the S&P 500 gained 6.84 points, or 0.23 percent, to 2,999.91 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.49 points, or 0.08 percent, to 8,196.04.
US shares had previously hit record highs after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the US central bank stood ready to "act as appropriate" in response to risks to the US economy, including disappointing factory activity, tame inflation and a simmering trade war with China.
Powell spoke before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday following similar testimony before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
"The Fed news is baked into the market now. The next big news is earnings," said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco.
US corporate earnings season begins in earnest next week, with large banks such as Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co reporting results.
In fixed-income markets, benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes last fell 22/32 in price to yield 2.1361 percent, from 2.061 percent late on Wednesday.
Data showing the biggest gain in US underlying consumer prices in 1-1/2 years also contributed to gains in Treasury yields. The data did not change expectations for a rate cut from the Fed, however.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, dipped slightly amid prospects for a Fed rate cut, though the strong US inflation data capped its losses. It was last down 0.04 percent.
The Japanese yen and the euro were near flat against the dollar.
Spot gold fell 0.9 percent to $1,406.04 an ounce on stronger-than-expected US inflation data.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
LONDON -- Government bonds held near multi-year lows on Thursday on bets the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month and that other major central banks would embrace looser monetary policy, pushing world stocks to new 18-month highs.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, a benchmark for euro zone debt, fell to -0.4 percent and matched the European Central Bank's deposit rate for the first time -- a sign that markets are expecting rate cuts.
Other benchmark debt yields also held near record lows in the wake of their recent rally. US 10-year Treasury notes had hit their lowest since November 2016 on Wednesday, pushed down by bets that the European Central Bank's next head will maintain a dovish policy stance to buoy the euro zone economy.
"For central banks, everyone is expecting dovish moves, not only for US but also for Europe and even Japan," said Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in Paris. "Everybody is a optimistic for quick central bank moves."
The fall in US Treasuries came after a report showed US companies added fewer jobs than expected in June, raising concerns the labor market is softening even as the current US economic expansion marked a record run last month.
With Wall Street closed for the Independence Day holiday, investors said they were now focused on Friday's US non-farm payrolls, which economists expect to have risen by 160,000 in June compared with 75,000 in May.
Separately, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday repeated his call for the United States to match what he says are efforts by China and Europe to manipulate currencies and pump money into their economies.
Government borrowing costs in the euro zone have fallen to record lows after EU leaders agreed late on Tuesday to name Christine Lagarde as the ECB's new president.
Lagarde, the current International Monetary Fund head, is widely expected to maintain the dovish stance of current ECB President Mario Draghi.
The action in bond markets buoyed stocks. MSCI's all-country world index eked out a 0.1 percent gain after hitting its highest since February last year a day earlier.
Equity markets across Europe were flat, with the Euro STOXX 600 unchanged amid thin volumes. The three major U.S. stock indexes had finished at record closing highs on Wednesday.
Italian 10-year bond yields stayed close to their lowest since late 2016 after the European Commission dropped its threat to discipline Rome over its public finances, pushing the country's main bourse to a new two-month peak.
In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2 percent.
FLAT DOLLAR, EURO
Expectations for rate cuts by the Fed saw the dollar drift away from recent highs, though currencies were by and large quiet in early European trade.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was unchanged at 96.711.
The euro traded at $1.1284, a touch higher than its two-week low of $1.1268 touched on Wednesday.
FX strategists said that although the drop in US Treasury yields overnight was negative for the dollar, softness in other currencies was lending some support.
"We are seeing some euro weakness and some dollar weakness, and the two are cancelling each other out," said Thu Lan Nguyen, FX strategist at Commerzbank.
"What is happening in US and euro zone monetary policy will also determine what happens in smaller countries," she added.
In commodity markets, oil fell on data showing a smaller-than-expected decline in US crude stockpiles and worries about the global economy.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were flat at $63.84 per barrel by 1109 GMT (7:09 a.m. Friday in Manila).
source: news.abs-cbn.com
SHANGHAI -- Asian stock markets edged up on Monday after surprising strong US first-quarter economic growth boosted the S&P 500 index to a record high, but gains were capped by caution over less upbeat aspects in the GDP report which pointed to some weakening ahead.
Investors were also awaiting a meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week and Chinese factory data for further clues on policy direction in the world's biggest economies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up less than 0.1 percent, edging higher after posting its biggest weekly drop in more than a month last week.
Australian shares were down 0.26 percent, while Seoul's KOSPI was up 0.4 percent.
Japan's financial markets are closed for a long national holiday this week, but Nikkei 225 futures in Singapore were 0.72 percent higher.
In contrast with weakness in Asian markets last week, Wall Street ended Friday on a high note following data showing US gross domestic product grew at a faster 3.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31 percent to 26,543.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added or 0.34 percent to 8,146.40.
The S&P 500 gained 0.47 percent to 2,939.88, its second record closing high for the week.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said that despite stronger-than-expected earnings helping to lift markets, he sees "overly extended" S&P positioning.
"We have flipped from a state where it is a stock rally no one wants to take part in, to a frenzied paced splurge where hedge funds and investors alike continue to chase markets like greyhounds to the mechanical rabbit," he said in a note.
While the strong GDP data helped to ease fears of an imminent recession, investors noted that it was driven by a smaller trade deficit and a large accumulation of unsold merchandise, as consumer and business spending slowed sharply.
In a morning note to clients, analysts at National Australian said the strong GDP has a "soft underbelly", noting weak inflation.
"It is the thought that a downturn in inflation could have the Fed cutting rates before 2019 is out – at a time when the Fed is openly discussing wanting to tolerate a period of above target inflation to make up for past shortfalls – that had the interest rate markets moving the implied probability of a 2019 easing out," they said.
The March reading for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's favored inflation measure, is due later on Monday. The central bank will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with Chairman Jerome Powell expected to balance the strong growth data against persistent concerns over the outlook for global growth.
Markets will also be looking to global factory activity surveys this week, particularly official and private readings on Chinese manufacturing which will both be released Tuesday.
While better-than-expected March data from China have helped eased fears of a sharp global slowdown, it has also touched off an intense debate over how much more stimulus Beijing can roll out without risking a rapid build-up in debt and potential asset bubbles.
In currency markets, the dollar was flat against the yen at 111.61. The euro was also barely changed, rising 0.02 percent to $1.1150.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, inched higher to 98.033.
US crude dipped 0.7 percent at $62.86 a barrel, continuing lower after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday pressured the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise crude production to ease gasoline prices.
Brent crude fell to $71.6 per barrel.
Spot gold was slightly lower, trading at $1,285.29 per ounce.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- The dollar rose to almost a two-year high against the euro on Thursday on an upbeat US capital goods report, while world equities slid as weak economic data from South Korea and a profit warning from 3M Co renewed concerns about global growth.
New orders for US-made capital goods increased by the most in eight months in March, which combined with worries about the economic health of the euro zone knocked the single currency to its lowest against the greenback since May 2017.
Other data showed the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week was the biggest in 19 months, but the trend remains consistent with a strong labor market.
"The dollar is benefiting from strong domestic data, weak data abroad and a slew of dovish central bank meetings," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Tempus Inc in Washington.
The euro fell 0.19 percent to $1.1131, while European shares slid after a mixed bag of earnings from the region.
Finnish telecom network equipment maker Nokia tumbled 9 percent, its biggest decline in 18 months. Nokia reported a surprise quarterly loss after it failed to supply 5G telecoms equipment on time.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.21 percent and MSCI's gauge of stock performance in 47 countries shed 0.25 percent.
On Wall Street, strong results from Facebook and Microsoft Corp lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq to a new intra-day record but were offset by dismal earnings in industrials, including 3M and United Parcel Service Inc .
UPS fell 8.1 percent and the industrial sector slid 2 percent, while Facebook gained 5.8 percent and Microsoft Corp rose 3.3 percent.
The Dow industrials fell 1 percent at one point, dragged down by a 13 percent plunge in 3M shares after the company reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit, cut its 2019 earnings forecast and said it would lay off 2,000 workers globally.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 134.97 points, or 0.51 percent, to 26,462.08. The S&P 500 lost 1.08 points, or 0.04 percent, to 2,926.17 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.67 points, or 0.21 percent, to 8,118.68.
Asian markets slid earlier in the day, losing 0.5 percent as South Korea's economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, a reminder of economic fragility outside the United States.
Shanghai's bourse also fell late in the day, losing more than 2 percent on the latest central bank efforts to temper expectations for further monetary policy easing.
Chinese officials also warned of protracted pressure on economic growth, casting a shadow over hopes for a sustained recovery in the world's second-biggest economy.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of six major peers, held near its highest level since May 2017. The index was up 0.1 percent.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.48 percent versus the greenback at 111.63 per dollar.
The Turkish lira weakened 0.95 percent against the dollar after Turkey's central bank left interest rates unchanged at 24 percent but in a dovish shift dropped a previous reference to possible further tightening if needed to address inflation.
US Treasury yields rose as investors piled into the safe-haven government bonds following a dovish report from Canada's central bank and solid demand at auction for $41 billion of new five-year notes.
Benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year notes fell 3/32 in price to push yields up to 2.5343 percent.
Oil prices eased after Brent touched $75 per barrel for the first time in nearly six months on the suspension of some Russian crude exports to Europe.
Brent crude futures settled down 22 cents at $74.35 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 68 cents to settle at $65.21.
US gold futures settled unchanged at $1,279.70 an ounce.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
Asian shares were steady on Tuesday ahead of a US Federal Reserve policy meeting, hovering near six-month highs, while sterling was choppy as the speaker of Britain's parliament banned another vote on same Brexit deal.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was virtually flat, just a hair away from the highest level since Sept. 21.
Japan's Nikkei average dropped 0.5 percent, while Australian stocks eased 0.1 percent.
All three major US indexes rose overnight, lifted by banks and tech names, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite adding between 0.3 and 0.4 percent each.
"Speculators appear to be betting on rise in stock prices on the back of a dovish Fed. The Fed is unlikely to kill such hopes. Yet there is a risk the Fed could tone down its dovishness," said Masanari Takada, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities.
With signs of global economic growth slowing, traders were focused on the Federal Reserve, which is kicking off its two-day policy meeting on later in the day, for clues about the likely path of US borrowing costs.
In particular, investors will be focusing on whether policymakers have sufficiently lowered their interest rate forecasts to more closely align their "dot plot", a diagram showing individual policymakers' rate views for the next three years.
Also expected is more detail on a plan to stop cutting the Fed's holdings of nearly $3.8 trillion in bonds.
"A key focus is when the Fed will omit the word 'patient' from its statement, as that would be a pre-requisite for a rate hike," said Toru Yamamoto, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities.
In the currency market, the pound found firmer footing on Tuesday after slipping to as low as $1.3183 overnight as lawmakers cast doubt on Prime Minister Theresa May's third attempt to get parliament to back her Brexit deal.
May's Brexit plans were thrown into further turmoil on Monday when the speaker of parliament ruled that she could not put her divorce deal to a new vote unless it was re-submitted in fundamentally different form.
May has only two days to win approval for her deal to leave the European Union if she wants to go to a summit with the bloc's leaders on Thursday with something to offer them in return for more time.
Meanwhile, senior diplomats said the European Union leaders could hold off making any final decision on any Brexit delay when they meet in Brussels later this week, depending on what exactly May asks them for.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies barely moved and was at 96.498.
The Japanese yen edged up 0.1 percent to 111.27 yen to the dollar, while the euro was almost flat at $1.1334.
Oil prices rose to near four-month highs on Monday, supported by the prospect of extended OPEC-led oil supply curbs and signs of inventory declines in US crude stockpiles.
Early on Tuesday, US crude futures slipped 0.2 percent to $58.99 a barrel.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- A gauge of global equity markets traded little changed on Thursday as European shares rose ahead of new voting that backed a Brexit delay and bolstered the dollar, while Wall Street meandered on uncertainty over US-China trade talks.
The dollar gained for the first time in a week as the pound fell even after Parliament voted overwhelmingly to seek a delay to the March 29 deadline for Britain to exit the European Union.
Lawmakers also voted against a second referendum on EU membership as the delay vote set the stage for Prime Minister Theresa May to renew efforts to get a divorce deal approved by Parliament next week.
Sterling fell 0.86 percent to $1.3222 after gaining almost 2 percent late on Wednesday on a vote to defeat a "no-deal" Brexit.
Uncertainty about Brexit favored waiting for some clarity in the market as there was a lack of conviction, said Charles Tomes, senior investment analyst at Manulife Asset Management.
"Volatility is low and people don't want to put on sizeable positions either way," Tomes said.
European shares rose to a five-month high as sentiment improved from cautious to upbeat after the open. But a Bloomberg report of a likely delay in US-China trade talks, coupled with fresh data showing weak US home sales, hurt US stocks.
Data showing China's industrial output grew 5.3 percent in January and February, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 years, is also a concern, said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.
While fiscal and monetary stimulus will improve China's economy down the road, fear of US-China trade wars and economic slowdown are driving market sentiment for the moment.
"In general, what we have is a picture that doesn't look particularly positive today," Hooper said.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.03 percent while the FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares closed up 0.77 percent.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.05 points, or 0.03 percent, to 25,709.94. The S&P 500 lost 2.44 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,808.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 12.50 points, or 0.16 percent, to 7,630.91.
The dollar index, a gauge of its strength against six other major trading currencies, rose 0.24 percent to 96.783 after brushing a nine-day trough overnight of 96.385.
The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.1302, and the Japanese yen weakened 0.46 percent versus the greenback at 111.70 per dollar.
US Treasury prices dropped in quiet trading.
The benchmark 10-year note fell 5/32 in price to push its yield to 2.6285 percent.
Oil prices were mixed, lifted by solid demand and output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, though gains were capped by an ongoing surge in US supply while analysts warned of risks to the global economy.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose 35 cents to settle at $58.61 per barrel, but Brent crude futures settled down 32 cents at $67.23 per barrel.
Gold slipped below $1,300 for a second time this month as the dollar gained and British lawmakers approved a Brexit delay.
US gold futures settled 1.1 percent lower to $1,295.1 an ounce.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- Global equities markets fell on Thursday as weak Chinese economic data and mixed messages on the progress of trade talks between China and the United States weighed on investor sentiment.
Earlier, news of the collapse of the summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on denuclearization triggered flight-to-quality bids in lower-risk assets such as the Swiss franc.
Data showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low and China's export orders fell at their fastest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago, adding to ongoing worries about a slowdown in the Chinese economy and its impact on global markets.
"There's been a lot of stimulus measures in China, and it's still not showing up in the numbers as soon as people would like," said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at SunTrust Advisory Services in Atlanta.
Receding optimism on the US-China trade talks also dampened sentiment.
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said his office was taking legal steps to implement Trump's announcement on Sunday to delay a tariff increase on more than $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that had been scheduled to take effect on Friday. But Lighthizer's office later issued a statement saying that it was not abandoning the threat of increasing the tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent.
On Wall Street, data showing better-than-expected US economic growth in the fourth quarter helped offset worries over China. Gross domestic product rose 2.9 percent for the year, just shy of the 3 percent goal set by the Trump administration.
"The numbers came out in a pretty robust way," said Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors in New York. "There hasn't been much reaction because of the geopolitical uncertainty in the headlines."
The US economic data also prompted a rise in Treasury yields and a retreat in gold prices.
Benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes last fell 8/32 in price to yield 2.7222 percent, from 2.693 percent late on Wednesday.
Spot gold dropped 0.5 percent to $1,313.20 an ounce.
PULLING BACK
Global equities scaled a four-month high earlier this week, helped by upbeat expectations about the US-China trade talks. But on Thursday, the MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.4 percent to notch a third day of losses, albeit modest ones.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 69.16 points, or 0.27 percent, to 25,916, the S&P 500 lost 7.89 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,784.49 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 21.98 points, or 0.29 percent, to 7,532.53.
MSCI's gauge of emerging markets stocks fell 1.0 percent.
According to equity market analysts in Reuters polls, global stock markets in 2019 will at best only recoup losses from the deep sell-off late last year. They see the risk skewed more toward a sharp fall by mid-year.
"The expectation is that we'll probably chop sideways until we get substantial news," said Robert Phipps, director at Per Stirling Capital Management in Austin, Texas.
In currency markets, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was little changed. The dollar was also nearly flat against the euro .
The Swiss franc rose 0.4 percent against the dollar, rising following the news of the end of the summit between Trump and Kim.
The Japanese yen hit a 10-month low against the dollar and was last down 0.4 percent.
Brent crude settled down 36 cents, or 0.54 percent, at $66.03 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 28 cents, or 0.49 percent, at $57.22 a barrel.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- A gauge of global stocks hit a two-month high on Monday, as gains for technology and industrial shares fueled a rise on Wall Street, while the US dollar gained for a third straight session against a basket of currencies and US Treasury yields rose.
Oil prices pulled back after reaching their highest levels in roughly two months.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.33 percent, reaching a fresh two-month high.
Investors were parsing the significance for financial markets from Friday's strong US jobs report, which came on the heels of the Federal Reserve saying it would be patient on future rate hikes amid a cloudy outlook for the US economy.
“Investors are realizing that the Fed is at least going to be friendly here in the near term," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
"Some of these things that were weighing as negatives... namely a tighter Fed, lack of progress on the tariffs, those things are starting to improve or have improved, and as a result there are more reasons to be investing in stocks," Hellwig said.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 175.48 points, or 0.7 percent, to 25,239.37, the S&P 500 gained 18.34 points, or 0.68 percent, to 2,724.87 and the Nasdaq Composite added 83.67 points, or 1.15 percent, to 7,347.54.
Technology and industrials were the biggest gainers among the S&P 500 sectors, as investors braced for another big week of fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.06 percent as the heavyweight banking sector fell following poor results from Julius Baer.
The US dollar strengthened across the board, as investors took heart from Friday's strong payrolls number.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies. rose 0.27 percent, with the euro down 0.18 percent to $1.1433.
Improved risk appetite helped lift the dollar to a five-week high against the safe-haven yen.
US Treasury prices fell in generally thin volume, pressured by upcoming debt supply, as well as indications that inflation expectations are rising.
Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 10/32 in price to yield 2.7253 percent, from 2.691 percent late on Friday.
Oil prices fell after disappointing US factory data sparked fresh concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. But losses were limited as OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanctions against Venezuela brightened the supply outlook.
US crude settled down 1.3 percent at $54.56 per barrel and Brent settled down 0.4 percent at $62.51.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
SYDNEY -- Asian shares camped near 1-1/2 month highs on Monday as investors kept a wary eye on looming Chinese trade data on increasing signs a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy is dragging on global growth.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was barely changed at 490.97 points after climbing to the highest since early December on Friday.
Liquidity was expected to be light during Asian hours as Japan was on public holiday.
Australian shares ticked up 0.3 percent while New Zealand's benchmark index was off 0.2 percent.
Investors expect volatility to rise this week, "as some key issues that have been affecting market sentiment approach decision points," said Nick Twidale, analyst at Rakuten Securities.
On the earnings front, US banks are in sharp focus with quarterly results from Citigroup due Monday followed by JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley later in the week.
Expectations are dour with profits for US companies forecast to rise 6.4 percent, down from an Oct. 1 estimate of 10.2 percent and a big drop from 2018's tax cut-fueled gain of more than 20 percent.
Investor focus was also on the US government shutdown, now in its 24th day, and with no resolution in sight.
Further clouding the outlook for markets, Britain faces a hugely uncertain path with a vote for a deal for its exit from the European Union due in the UK parliament on Tuesday.
All these factors were at play last week when the main US indices ended Friday little changed as investors reset positions ahead of key risk events.
Of more immediate concern was trade data from China later in the day, with recent signs Asia's largest economy was losing momentum and the government planning to lower its 2019 economic growth target.
The Sino-US tariff war has already disrupted trade flows for hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods and roiled global markets. While the two countries have been talks for months, few details have been provided of any progress made.
"It's a relatively quiet day in terms of economic data releases with probably the Chinese Trade Balance the only tier 1 data set to trouble the scorers," Twidale added.
"Expect sentiment to continue to dominate market direction with trades focusing closely on the news channels for the next twist in the various issues that are influencing the market."
The Australian dollar, a key gauge of global risk sentiment, dipped 0.2 percent from a one-month top of $0.7235 set on Friday.
Elsewhere, the euro slipped again as it hit key technical levels following data from Italy on Friday that showed the euro zone's third-largest economy was at risk of recession.
The single currency was last at $1.1458.
The dollar's index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was mostly flat at 95.645 after two straight days of gains.
In commodities, oil prices declined on Friday as investors worried about a global slowdown.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- Concerns over China-US trade tensions gave European shares their worst week of losses in 2 months and sank US stocks on Friday, overshadowing the lift from higher oil prices and jobs data.
While Europe was higher on the day with a small recovery after 3 sessions of heavy losses, the trade standoff between Washington and Beijing was still a major lingering worry for investors.
"Volatility is high and investors are twitchy. It has been a dreadful week for European markets, and today’s positive move can't mask the previous losses," said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.62 percent, while an index of London's 100 largest listed companies rose 1.1 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 558.72 points, or 2.24 percent, to 24,388.95, the S&P 500 lost 62.87 points, or 2.33 percent, to 2,633.08 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 219.01 points, or 3.05 percent, to 6,969.25.
Wall Street saw its biggest weekly losses since March, led by declines in big internet and technology shares.
The fall was a reversal from earlier in the day, when stocks were higher on US labor data that showed employers hired fewer workers than expected in November.
That supported a view that US growth is moderating and the Federal Reserve may stop raising rates sooner than previously thought.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 last month, but missed economists' expectation for a rise of 200,000.
"It is still consistent with the Fed raising short-term interest rates, said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida. "But I think the main theme here is that investors are expecting the Fed to be even more gradual, a little bit more cautious, in raising interest rates in 2019."
Oil climbed after big Middle East producers in OPEC agreed to reduce output to drain global fuel inventories and support the market.
US crude rose 1.42 percent to $52.22 per barrel and Brent was last at $61.39, up 2.21 percent on the day.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 1.11 percent.
Stock markets around the world tumbled on Thursday after Canadian officials announced the Dec. 1 arrest of the chief financial officer of Chinese smartphone maker Huawei for extradition to the United States. The arrest was seen as an added threat to the resolution of a trade war between the world's top two economies.
Also contributing to this week's sell-off were rising concerns about a US economic slowdown signaled by a flattening Treasury yield curve.
The front half of the yield curve remained inverted after 2-year and 3-year yields rose above five-year yields for the first time in over a decade earlier this week.
That inversion has stoked speculation about whether a US recession is looming.
The US dollar weakened against major currencies after the US jobs data.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.17 percent, with the euro up 0.24 percent to $1.1401.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- Emerging market stocks led declines in indexes across the globe on Wednesday as investors positioned themselves more defensively while a deadline in the US-China trade conflict loomed and US-Canada trade talks resumed.
Weakness in emerging market currencies offered some support to the dollar, which retreated modestly, as the euro rose and Britain's sterling regained some ground in volatile trading after a four-day losing streak.
The United States and Canada resumed talks about revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Canada insisted there was room to salvage the pact despite few signs a deal was close. US President Donald Trump said talks with Canada were coming along.
A public comment period on the possibility of fresh US tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods ends on Thursday, with expectations that Trump will impose the additional levies.
The deadline weighed on MSCI's emerging markets equities index, which fell 1.7 percent in line with a drop in the Shanghai SE Composite index.
"The linchpin will be China," said Sameer Samana, global equity and technical strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, in St. Louis, adding that if China continues to grow, other emerging market countries could regain ground.
"We're actually kicking the tires to see where there's value," Samana said.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22.51 points, or 0.09 percent, to 25,974.99, the S&P 500 lost 8.12 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,888.6 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 96.07 points, or 1.19 percent, to 7,995.17.
Along with global concerns, US politics were preying on investors minds with issues including upcoming mid-term elections and controversies around President Donald Trump, according to Rick Meckler, partner, Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey.
"In the absence of an earnings season, politics will be a bigger factor in this market up until the midterms. In general people feel somewhat uneasy. There's underlying nervousness about politics, interest rates and emerging markets."
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index lost 1.20 percent and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.61 percent.
Emerging market currencies showed a second day of declines, with a JPMorgan emerging market currency index falling 0.2 percent on fears export-oriented economies would be caught in the crossfire of any escalating trade conflict.
Sterling was last trading at $1.2908, up 0.42 percent on the day as investors positioned for a favorable Brexit outcome even after Germany appeared to shoot down an earlier report that Berlin and London might abandon key Brexit demands.
Measured against a basket of currencies, the dollar index fell 0.34 percent, with the euro up 0.42 percent to $1.163.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 1/32 in price to yield 2.9004 percent, from 2.902 percent late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond last fell 3/32 in price to yield 3.0737 percent, from 3.069 percent late on Tuesday.
Oil prices fell after a US Gulf storm weakened and moved away from oil-producing areas and as concerns mounted about global trade disputes and Turkey's currency crisis hurting demand.
US crude fell 1.39 percent to $68.90 per barrel and Brent was last at $77.35, down 1.05 percent on the day.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
TOKYO -- The dollar trod water against its peers on Monday, as market participants awaited key central bank meetings this week, which could set the near-term course for currencies.
Central banks in focus include the Bank of Japan, which ends a two-day meeting on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve, which concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday. The Bank of England also makes a policy decision on Thursday.
The dollar index against a basket of 6 major currencies stood little changed at 94.662 after dipping slightly on Friday. Upbeat second quarter US gross domestic product data failed to lift the greenback, as markets had mostly priced in strong figures.
The US currency was 0.05 percent lower at 110.970 yen following a loss of about 0.2 percent on Friday.
Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, said investors would be more interested in US GDP data that incorporates July, which is when tariffs against Chinese goods were activated.
"On the other hand, the two-year Treasury yield is rising, underscoring strong rate hike expectations in the market. This is limiting the dollar's losses, although movements are likely to be limited ahead of the BOJ meeting," Yamamoto said.
The two-year Treasury yield rose to a decade high of 2.69 towards the end of last week.
The financial markets are keen to see whether the BOJ is mulling taking steps to make its massive stimulus programme more sustainable.
The euro nudged up 0.05 percent to $1.1659, extending Friday's modest gains.
The pound was nearly flat at $1.3110.
Sterling posted its third straight weekly loss last week, hit by concerns about the progress of Brexit talks. It will be looking for some relief on Thursday, when the BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates for only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis.
The Australian dollar dipped 0.05 percent to $0.7398, trimming some of its gains after rising roughly 0.4 percent on Friday against a broadly sagging dollar.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
TOKYO - The dollar struggled near 3-1/2-week lows against its peers on Monday after US jobs data showed slower-than-expected wages growth, while the pound retreated as a key member of Britain's cabinet resigned over Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was 0.1 percent lower at 93.962..
It had lost nearly 0.5 percent on Friday and stooped to 93.921, its lowest since June 14, after closely-watched US wages indicators disappointed the market.
Data on Friday showed average US hourly earnings gained five cents, or 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.3 percent in May. This pointed to moderate inflation pressures that dented expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates a total of four times in 2018.
Nonfarm payrolls did rise by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 in June, Friday's data also showed, although this had little impact on currencies.
"The wages component has been the focal point for the market for a while now, rather than the non-farm payrolls, and the dollar slipped accordingly. The flattening of the US yield curve, perhaps reflecting worries about the economic impact of trade conflicts, is also a key factor weighing on the dollar," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in nearly six weeks on Friday. As a result the spread between the two- and 10-year yields was at its flattest in 11 years.
The dollar was little changed at 110.42 yen after losing 0.2 percent on Friday.
The euro was 0.1 percent higher at $1.1752. The single currency had risen 0.45 percent on Friday, when it brushed $1.1768, its strongest since mid-June.
The pound was effectively flat at $1.3295.
Sterling had climbed to $1.3328 earlier in the session, its highest since June 14, before pulling back after sources told Reuters British Brexit Secretary David Davis had resigned in a blow to Prime Minister Theresa May.
"The latest headlines are negative for the pound, but there are underlying expectations for the Bank of England to raise rates and that could help limit potential losses," Ishikawa at IG Securities said.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
TOKYO -- The dollar approached a 3-week high against the yen and stood tall against the euro on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which could give clues on how many more rate hikes might come out of the US this year.
The Fed concludes its 2-day policy meeting later on Wednesday, at which it is widely expected to hike rates for the second time this year.
Market focus is on whether the Fed signals tightening policy 4 times in 2018, from the 3 times indicated earlier this year, after the world's largest economy has expanded steadily.
The dollar index against a basket of 6 major currencies inched up 0.03 percent to 93.829 after rising 0.25 percent the previous day.
The dollar was 0.1 percent higher at 110.455 yen after brushing 110.55, its highest since May 23.
"There are views that the recent emerging markets turmoil could hold back the Fed from quickening the pace of its rate hikes. So the dollar would benefit if the Fed actually signals readiness to hike 4 times this year," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
The euro was little changed at $1.1747 after slipping 0.35 percent overnight.
In addition to the Fed, Thursday's ECB policy meeting is expected to dictate the euro's near-term direction.
Speculation that the ECB could signal intention to start unwinding its massive bond purchasing program had pushed up the euro to a three-week high of $1.1840 last week, although the common currency has been unable to sustain those gains.
"Expectations were that the ECB will be willing to hasten policy normalization," Yamamoto at Mizuho Securities said. "However, I believe such expectations are overdone and the meeting could disappoint those hoping for hawkish rhetoric, which would explain the euro's recent weakness."
The pound was a shade lower at $1.3371, unable to hold gains made overnight when it briefly rose to $1.3424.
Sterling had popped higher on Tuesday after British Prime Minister Theresa May saw off a rebellion in parliament over amendments to a bill for the country's exit from the EU next year.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were little changed at $0.7575 and $0.7007, respectively.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
