WASHINGTON - Even as online platforms tightened rules for political ads, digital spending set new records in the 2018 US midterm elections and appears poised for further growth in 2020.
Digital media campaign spending rose 2,400 percent from the 2014 midterms to $1.8 billion, roughly 20 percent of the total $8.9 billion in ad spending, according to preliminary estimates from the research firm Borrell Associates.
Online spending, much of it on social networks like Facebook, has been a significant factor in campaigns for a decade, but tighter rules imposed by digital giants in the wake of the 2016 election could have curbed some of that growth.
Kip Cassino, lead author of the Borrell study, said the online sector kept up a strong growth pace despite new guidelines from Facebook, Twitter and others requiring verification of advertisers to address concerns about foreign influence campaigns.
Digital has some unique advantages over traditional media like television, notably the ability to send out messages quickly and targeted to specific groups of voters.
"They can take advantage of an opportunity very quickly, within seconds," Borrell said. "You can't do that with legacy media."
Additionally, campaigns can finely target voters by geography, age, affiliation and interests, based on data gleaned by online firms.
"You can focus your messages to those people who are going to vote for your or those you want to vote for you," Cassino said.
"You don't want to waste your money on those who don't want to listen to you."
PRIVACY CHANGES AHEAD?
It remains unclear, however, what if any new privacy rules may come into effect before the 2020 election. Any regulations similar to those imposed in Europe could in theory limit campaigns' ability to target ads without consent from users.
"I would be surprised if (tough ad targeting regulations) happen with this administration," said Michelle Amazeen, a Boston University professor specializing in political communication.
Amazeen said campaigns this year were able to use finely targeted ads, including many "attack ads," whose source was not clearly identified -- in some cases seeking to get press attention from "sensational" or inaccurate claims.
"There are certain loopholes where people can run ads and there's no real confirmation of whether that individual or group is who they say they are," Amazeen said.
She added that Facebook's decision to keep these ads without better disclosure "suggests they are not really concerned about protecting the integrity of the election."
Facebook's political ad report showed $353 million spend by campaigns on its platform since May, with unsuccessful Texas Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke the largest spender with $7.1 million, followed by Donald Trump's campaign committee with $3.4 million.
EMBRACING DIGITAL
While many candidates embraced digital, some strategists say other office seekers failed to take advantage of cost-effective online ads.
Broadcast TV still made up nearly 40 percent of all campaign spending and cable TV for 12 percent.
Amazeen said television remains a key medium because of a large body of research showing its effectiveness, and because older voters are less reachable on online platforms.
According to Cassino, Democrats outspent Republicans three-to-one on digital, but some analysts say much of that was in fundraising and not to help get the vote out.
Mark Jablonowski, managing partner at DS Political, a digital targeting consultancy for Democrats and progressive candidates, said Republicans were well-organized early in the campaign on digital, forcing Democrats to catch up with a late online surge.
"We did not see the growth in digital ad spending we were expecting" from Democrats, Jablonowksi said.
Even with candidates like O'Rourke, he said, "almost all of that (digital) spending was to raise more money, not for persuasion."
Jablonowski said it will be increasingly important in 2020 to direct more ad dollars to digital to reach younger voters.
"You want to be where the eyeballs are, and more people are cancelling their cable television subscriptions, don't have landline telephones," he said.
"There's a whole universe of people not reachable by television."
Some analysts say even old technology, like text messaging, were effective tools in 2018.
Roddy Lindsay, co-founder and chief of the smartphone organizing group Hustle, said activists for Democrats and progressives sent out more than 200 million text messages, calling it an important element in driving turnout.
Although text messages have been used for decades, organizers were able to use targeted campaigns to deliver "peer to peer" messages to young voters who might not be reached by traditional media.
"This was one of the breakout tools of the 2018 election cycle," Lindsay said.
"We know the youth voter turnout made the difference."
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic charged higher Wednesday after the US midterm elections produced no major surprises, triggering a relief rally.
"Financial markets are continuing their forward drive on the realization that investors were rightly positioned for the outcome of the midterm elections," said Jamel Ahmad at FXTM.
The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives following Tuesday's vote, but President Donald Trump's Republican party widened its majority in the Senate.
The dollar, however, slid against main rivals as investors expected Democratic control of the House to be "a potential roadblock" to any Trump effort to introduce further fiscal stimulus, Ahmad said.
While the election results were broadly in line with forecasts -- with some notable upsets and near upsets in the details -- the outcome means Trump faces a tough 2 years before his 2020 re-election bid, with Democrats appearing ready to fight against his tax-cutting, deregulation agenda while boosting oversight of the administration and Trump himself.
RELIEF RALLY
Wall Street's top 3 stock indices all finished solidly higher.
Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com said the rise in stocks "likely speaks to the relief that the election is done and that the overall result went as expected."
And the absence of major surprises "has removed an element of uncertainty, which has added to market volatility in recent weeks."
The broad-based recovery in European stock markets suggests that "investors are hoping that a split Congress will mark the end of Trump's protectionist agenda, as least as far as Europe is concerned", said Simona Gambarini at Capital Economics.
Other analysts pointed to the consequences of the power divide.
"The split Congress means that there is more likely to be gridlock, which will significantly curtail (Trump's) legislative agenda," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
While he pointed out that the two sides could possibly work together in areas such as infrastructure spending, he said "for the most part divisions between and within the parties mean that progress will be difficult."
The result also could mean lower pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates more aggressively, taking some heat out of the dollar.
The central bank's drive to tighten borrowing costs to offset a resurgent US economy has weighed on global stock markets in recent weeks.
Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, saw the elections result as a "good outcome" for the world economy.
DOUBLING DOWN ON TARIFFS
"When you look at... the expectations of more fiscal spending in the US adding to more pressure on debt and debt issuance, having a split government now with more checks and balances is actually a positive set-up for markets."
Earlier in Asia, the tone was somewhat less upbeat given the overhang of US-China trade war fears. Hong Kong's main stocks index finished 0.1 percent higher after swinging through the day, while Shanghai ended 0.7 percent down and Tokyo shed 0.3 percent. Sydney added 0.4 percent.
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said that Trump's long-running trade war with China would be unlikely to be affected by the vote outcome, meaning tariffs will continue, squeezing US consumers and farmers.
"A split Congress will, in all likelihood, not stop Trump from doubling down on tariffs with China. This could result in us getting all the anti-growth measures of Trump without more of the pro-growth reforms," he argued.
KEY FIGURES AROUND 2200 GMT (6 a.m. Thursday in Manila)
New York - Dow: UP 2.1 percent at 26,180.30 points (close)
New York - S&P 500: UP 2.1 percent at 2,813.89 (close)
New York - Nasdaq: UP 2.6 percent at 7,570.75 (close)
London - FTSE 100: UP 1.1 percent at 7,117.28 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 0.8 percent at 11,579.10 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: UP 1.2 percent at 5,137.94 (close)
EURO STOXX 50: UP 1.2 percent at 3,246.16 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 22,085.80 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: UP 0.1 percent at 26,147.69 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 2,641.34 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1434 from $1.1416 at 2120 GMT
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3130 from $1.3097
Dollar/yen: UP at 113.53 yen from 113.46 yen
Oil - Brent Crude: DOWN 6 cents at $72.92 per barrel
Oil - West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 54 cents at $61.67
source: news.abs-cbn.com
WASHINGTON - In addition to choosing members of Congress and state governors, Americans also cast ballots on a slew of local initiatives in the midterm elections, including the legalization of recreational marijuana, limits on abortions and banning greyhound racing.
MARIJUANA
Michigan became the 10th state to legalize recreational marijuana, and in the future residents will be able to grow up to 12 plants for their own personal use. A 10-percent tax was imposed on marijuana sales, with the revenue to be used to fund local councils, education and transport.
Missouri and Utah each legalized medical marijuana, which will carry a tax of four percent, with the funds earmarked to support health care for veterans.
ABORTION
Voters in Alabama and West Virginia approved amendments aimed at limiting future access to abortion.
The Alabama amendment aimed to "support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, most importantly the right to life in all manners."
The text of the proposal stated that "this state does not protect the right to abortion or require the funding of abortion." The state makes no exception for abortions in cases where the pregnancy results from incest, rape or where the mother's life is in danger.
Women's rights advocates fear the measures could lead to a challenge to the landmark Roe vs Wade Supreme Court ruling of 1973, especially at a time when appointments by President Donald Trump have swung the court far to the right.
JUSTICE
Louisiana scrapped a law dating back to its segregated past that allowed non-unanimous decisions in juries deliberating in felony trials.
The law, from 1898, allowed a jury to convict a person of felony by only 10 out of 12 jury votes, a move designed to negate the influence of black jury members who were allowed by the 14th Amendment after the Civil War to serve on juries. Its stated aim was to "perpetuate the supremacy of the Anglo-Saxon race in Louisiana."
Oregon is the only other state that does not require a unanimous jury decision in felony cases, except for murder.
Florida pass an initiative to restore voting rights to convicted felons who have served their sentence, except for those convicted of sex crimes or murder.
That will give an estimated 1.5 million people the right to cast ballots in a key swing state in presidential elections.
Colorado also voted to remove the word "slavery" from its statute books as a punishment for crime. The western state's constitution had until Tuesday's vote stated that "there shall never be in this state either slavery or involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime."
MINIMUM WAGE
Missouri approved raising the minimum wage from $7.83 dollars an hour to $12 dollars by 2023. In Arkansas, it will go up from $8.50 to $11 an hour by 2021.
THE TEN COMMANDMENTS
Alabama voted to allow the display of the biblical Ten Commandments in public buildings and schools.
ENVIRONMENT
Nevada backed a measure calling for public electricity providers to increase the amount of power generated from renewable sources from 20 percent to 50 percent by 2030.
Under the western state's regulations, however, the proposal has to be approved again in a second election, in 2020, to become law.
Florida banned offshore drilling in waters belonging to the state and also forbade vaping in the workplace.
ANIMAL RIGHTS
In Florida, 69 percent of voters supported a ban on greyhound racing to come into effect by 2020, backing animal rights activists who denounce the sport as cruel.
Florida has 12 of the United States' 18 dog tracks, while 40 US states ban betting on greyhound races.
California passed an initiative requiring all eggs in the state to come from cage-free hens by 2022, while setting minimum cage size requirements for pigs and calves raised for veal.
Alaskans however rejected a ballot measure increasing protections for wild salmon and their habitat, that would have tightened the permitting process for oil developments, mines and dams.
TECH TAX FOR THE HOMELESS
San Francisco voters backed a tax on the city's wealthiest companies to tackle homelessness, passing a measure that divided the tech community.
A tally posted Wednesday showed that 60 percent of voters in the city that is home to Airbnb, Uber, Salesforce, and Twitter cast ballots in favor of "Proposition C," a local ballot measure brought about by a 28,000 signature petition this summer.
Designed to rake in $250 to $300 million in taxes per year, the Robin Hood-esque measure is intended to fund housing for 5,000 people and finance mental health and housing aid services, according to its backers.
Generally, San Francisco's tech bosses -- including Twitter chief Jack Dorsey and Patrick Collison of payment start-up Stripe -- resisted the proposal.
But billionaire Marc Benioff, head of cloud computing firm Salesforce, pumped millions of dollars into the "Yes On C" campaign.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
Control of both houses of the US Congress and 36 state governorships are at stake in Tuesday's elections, which are widely viewed as a referendum on Republican President Donald Trump's first two years in the White House.
The following is a look at what will influence the outcome:
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
One in 4 Americans lives in the 125 congressional districts where no party is widely seen having a lock on Tuesday's vote. But the share of the country that could decide control of the House of Representatives might be smaller. About one-seventh of the country lives in the 64 districts widely seen as competitive or leaning against the incumbent party.
Sixty of those vulnerable districts are currently under Republican control or were left vacant when a Republican lawmaker resigned.
Republicans are defending 41 open or vacant House seats on Tuesday, compared with 22 defended by Democrats. Thirty-three incumbent Republicans plan to retire from the House after their current term. That will be the most for the party since at least
1930, according to historical records compiled by the Brookings
Institution. Five House Republicans resigned their seats and
3 more sought re-election but lost nominating elections to
other Republicans.
Seventeen Republican incumbents are defending House seats in districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election.
Some 182 Republican incumbents are defending House seats in districts Trump won in 2016.
Nine Republican incumbents are defending House seats in districts where Trump's margin of victory in 2016 was less than 5 percentage points.
A total of 155 Republican incumbents are defending House seats in districts Trump won by double digits in 2016.
US SENATE
Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states that Trump won in 2016. Five of those races are widely seen as competitive
or leaning Republican. They are the same 5 where Trump won by
double digits in 2016.
STATE-LEVEL RACES
Republicans now hold 33 governorships and 65 legislative chambers, with Democrats controlling 31 and 2 being tied, according to the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), which does not include Nebraska’s nonpartisan, unicameral legislature in its count.
By the NCSL's record, Republican dominance of state legislatures is at a historic high. The party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office in 25 states, with Democrats holding that trifecta in 8 states, the group said.
Democrats lost 945 seats in state legislatures across the country during the 2009-2017 presidency of Democrat Barack Obama, the group said.
Democrats sustained a net loss of 13 governorships under Obama, according to the Republican Governors Association.
TURNOUT
The most recent record in voter turnout during congressional midterm elections, when the White House was not on the line, came in 1982, when 49 percent of the voting-age population showed up to vote, according to the US Census Bureau. That was during Republican President Ronald Reagan's first term, when turnout among Democrats rose at twice the rate of increase among Republicans, according to Pew Research Center, resulting in a net gain of 26 seats for Democrats in the House.
Just 42 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the 2014 congressional midterm elections, the lowest turnout since at least 1964, according to the US Census Bureau.
Over the past two decades, the highest turnout for women
during a midterm election occurred in 2006, when nearly 45
percent voted.
Midterm turnout by young adult voters, aged 18 to 29, most recently peaked in 1982, when 31.7 percent of that age group cast a ballot, according to Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
CHICAGO - Andrew Menck didn't bother to vote in the last seven congressional elections but, determined to deliver a rebuke to Donald Trump's presidency, he joined the lines outside his local polling station that built up before dawn.
"I disapprove of the president's actions," said the 34-year-old, a Chicago voter who sees his ballot as a chance for real scrutiny of a president who has enjoyed a largely free hand from the Republican-controlled US Congress.
Menck was among millions of Americans heading to the polls Tuesday in the first major voter test of Trump's chaotic, often controversial presidency.
Massive early numbers -- more than 38 million ballots have been cast ahead of polling day compared with fewer than 20 million in 2014 -- sparked optimism that heavy rain in the eastern United States would not depress turnout.
A suburban Chicago polling station reported twice the number of voters compared to 2016 -- a presidential election year -- while in downtown Chicago, people gathered before polls opened at 6:00 am (1100 GMT).
"The message that I'm going to send is: We're not okay with the direction that this president is leading our country," said Rory Mabin, a 34-year-old Chicago resident who votes in every midterm election.
But James Gerlock, a 27-year-old Republican, said he was happy with the economic growth the country has seen under Trump's presidency and "just (loves) the deregulation."
In the Chicago suburb of Downers Grove, at a church along a leafy street, 500 people had voted in the first two hours of the morning -- twice as many as two years ago, according to poll worker David Mendalski.
The story was the same in Maryland, where a Montgomery County election official reported that turnout has been "astounding" early on, speculating that it might also surpass participation in presidential elections.
I'M HOPEFUL
And in Irvine, California, where Democratic candidate Katie Porter is locked in a tight race with 2-term Republican incumbent Mimi Walters, a staunch Trump backer, people were out in droves.
"We have already seen huge turnout, people out and about knocking on doors, making sure everybody gets out there, Porter told AFP.
"We're seeing so much support including from those who may have voted Republican in the past or may be registered Republicans," she told AFP, saying she expects many of them will flip to the other side this go-around.
But in Orange County -- where 4 heated congressional races are underway -- voter Richard Leavitt was skeptical that big change was in store.
"Every side believes they are the best and the strongest," he said. "A lot of people are angry and want change but it doesn't mean they'll get it."
There was a sense of urgency among voters flocking to the Brooklyn Museum in New York City, where production artist Gilad Foss warned that democratic values were "kind of under attack."
Across the East River in Manhattan, high school senior Ayla Jeddy voted after turning 18 in September -- just in time to register.
"I looked up all the candidates last night, and I did vote for candidates who opposed the most egregious of (Trump's) policies: his immigration policies... and his attitude towards women in general," she said, proudly displaying an "I voted" sticker on her jacket.
Two-page ballots caused delays in New York, while voters in Georgia also faced long waits due to technical problems and high turnout, US media reported.
Stacey Abrams, 44, the former minority leader of the state House of Representatives, is running for governor of Georgia against Republican Brian Kemp, the 55-year-old Georgia secretary of state.
Abrams, who has received the support of Oprah Winfrey and other celebrities, would be the first black woman to become governor of a US state if she wins.
"I really wanted to vote for the first female African-American governor, so that was one of the major driving forces, to be honest," Lia Koski, casting her ballot in Atlanta, told AFP.
One of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races is in Texas, where incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is facing pro-immigration Democratic Representative Beto O'Rourke.
At a polling station in his home town, the border city of El Paso, Carlos Gallinar enthused that O'Rourke was "just great for El Paso, great for Texas, great for United States."
"With all the issues that are happening across the country and the negative energy coming out of Washington and this president, it's great to see someone like Beto who has great energy, great enthusiasm, (a) positive great message."
source: news.abs-cbn.com
NEW YORK -- US shares rose on Tuesday while the dollar held steady as Americans went to the polls in elections that could shift the balance of power in Congress.
Treasury yields rose modestly as more supply came to market and spurred selling. Traders also awaited clues about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate increases when policymakers meet on Wednesday and Thursday.
Treasury supply has been growing to fund a widening federal budget deficit, the result of the massive tax cut enacted in December and a spending agreement reached in February.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.12 percent.
The congressional elections mark the first major test of President Donald Trump's polarizing personality and hardline policies on taxes, trade and immigration. If his Republican party loses control of the House of Representatives or the Senate, Democrats would be able to put the brakes on his agenda.
Opinion polls show Democrats have a good chance of winning a majority in the House.
"Unlike the US presidential election or the UK's Brexit referendum, the upcoming US elections are not a binary event," said Yasuo Sakuma, chief investment officer at Libra Investments. "So it's unlikely to send stocks significantly in one direction, apart from initial quick reactions."
European shares slipped on disappointing corporate earnings and caution ahead of the US election results. Politics weighed on Italian stocks, and oil prices fell as investors digested exemptions to the newly restored US sanctions on Iranian oil.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.26 percent.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 173.31 points, or 0.68 percent, to 25,635.01, the S&P 500 gained 17.14 points, or 0.63 percent, to 2,755.45 and the Nasdaq Composite added 47.11 points, or 0.64 percent, to 7,375.96.
"With the Democrats favorites to take control of the House and the Republicans the Senate, the next couple of years may be far more difficult for Trump," said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda in London. "When you consider how markets have done since his election victory – granted, primarily on the back of tax reforms – it's easy to see why this may not be the most investor-friendly result."
The benchmark S&P 500 index has climbed 28 percent since Trump's election in November 2016, more than under any other president in comparable periods in the past 64 years.
With so much at stake, currency market moves were tight. The dollar hardly moved against the euro and gained some ground against the Japanese yen.
Sterling reversed earlier losses in volatile trading on growing hopes of a Brexit deal breakthrough after a British Cabinet meeting.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of 6 major currencies, was flat, with the euro up 0.09 percent to $1.1416.
The yen weakened 0.23 percent versus the greenback at 113.47 per dollar.
Italian shares were essentially flat, despite frayed nerves in Italy after euro zone finance ministers called on Rome to change its budget to conform with European Union rules at a meeting late on Monday.
Oil prices sank, with US crude futures sliding to an 8-month low, as Iran said it had so far been able to sell as much oil as it needed to after Washington granted sanction waivers to top buyers of Iranian oil.
US crude fell 1.46 percent to $62.18 per barrel and Brent was last at $72.07, down 1.5 percent on the day.
"The details on the Iran sanctions waivers are trickling out, and it appears much more Iranian oil will remain on the market in the near-term than previously thought," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management in New York.
Both oil benchmarks have slid more than 15 percent since hitting four-year highs in early October.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
Fox News, NBC and Facebook have pulled a Trump campaign ad branded racist, which equates a convicted Mexican murderer with Central American migrants en route to the US border.
NBC pulled the ad after coming under fire for showing the commercial during the widely watched "Sunday Night Football" program ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, which are seen as a referendum on Trump, who vows to curtail immigration.
"After further review we recognize the insensitive nature of the ad and have decided to cease airing it across our properties as soon as possible," NBC Universal said in a statement.
Fox News, the US president's favorite television network and often considered favorable to his administration, confirmed to AFP that it had removed the ad and that it would no longer appear on either its news or Fox Business channels.
Facebook said the ad "violates" the social network's advertising policy against sensational content. "We have rejected it. While the video is allowed to be posted on Facebook, it cannot receive paid distribution," it said.
The Trump campaign released the ad last week. Questioned about it on Monday, the US president pleaded ignorance. "I don't know about it," he said. "A lot of things are offensive. Your questions are offensive."
The ad opens with footage of a grinning Luis Bracamontes, a Mexican criminal sentenced to death for killing two police officers in California in 2014, vowing to kill "more cops" in the future.
The straplines "Democrats let him into our country" and "Democrats let him stay" appear on screen, followed by images of migrants currently traveling through Mexico en route to the US border.
"Who else would Democrats let in?" asks the ad.
The Sacramento Bee newspaper in California reported, however, that records show that Bracamontes was deported before sneaking back into the country -- under Republican president George W. Bush.
CNN refused to broadcast the ad from the beginning. "I guess they only run fake news and won't talk about real threats that don't suit their agenda," tweeted the president's eldest son, urging his followers to vote Republican.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
