WASHINGTON - The higher summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are unlikely to significantly limit the growth of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Princeton University study published Monday in the journal Science.
Several statistical studies conducted over the past few months have shown a slight correlation between climate and the novel coronavirus -- the hotter and more humid it is, the less likely the virus is to spread.
But the findings remain preliminary, and much remains unknown about the exact relationship between climate and COVID-19.
The Princeton study does not rule out the correlation entirely but concludes that the impact of climate on the spread of the virus is "modest."
"Our findings suggest, without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth," the study said.
"We project that warmer or more humid climates will not slow the virus at the early stage of the pandemic," said Rachel Baker, a postdoctoral research associate in the Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI).
While climate, particularly humidity, plays a role in the spread of other coronaviruses and the flu, the study said a more important factor is the absence of widespread immunity to COVID-19.
"We do see some influence of climate on the size and timing of the pandemic, but, in general, because there's so much susceptibility in the population, the virus will spread quickly no matter the climate conditions," Baker said.
Baker said the spread of the virus seen in countries such as Brazil, Ecuador and Australia indicates that warmer conditions do little to halt the pandemic.
"It doesn't seem that climate is regulating spread right now," Baker said.
Without strong containment measures or a vaccine, the coronavirus may continue to infect a large proportion of the world's population, the researchers said, and only become seasonal later, "after the supply of unexposed hosts is reduced."
"Previously circulating human coronaviruses such as the common cold depend strongly on seasonal factors, peaking in the winter outside of the tropics," said co-author Bryan Grenfell, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at PEI.
"If, as seems likely, the novel coronavirus is similarly seasonal, we might expect it to settle down to become a winter virus as it becomes endemic in the population," Grenfell said.
For the study, the researchers conducted simulations on how the pandemic would respond to various climates. They ran scenarios based on what is known about the effect seasonal variations have on similar viruses.
In all three scenarios, climate only became a mitigating factor when large portions of the human population were immune or resistant to the virus.
"The more that immunity builds up in the population, the more we expect the sensitivity to climate to increase," Baker said. "If you run the model long enough, you have a big pandemic and the outbreak settles into seasonal infection."
Agence France-Presse
FRANKFURT - Anyone tempted to #DeleteFacebook after personal data of millions of users fell into the hands of a political consultancy is still likely to be monitored by the social network, which tracks nearly 30 percent of global website traffic.
And Google, in various guises, shadows 64 percent of all web-browsing worldwide, a recent study of 200,000 German users by Cliqz, using its anti-tracking product Ghostery, said.
Neither Facebook nor Google responded to emails asking whether they viewed the Cliqz research as representative.
A larger study of web trackers by researchers at Princeton University in 2016 produced similar results, with Google Analytics and other Google trackers taking the top five places, followed by Facebook.
Cliqz, majority owned by German publisher Hubert Burda Media and backed by Firefox browser creater Mozilla, is one of several startups that promises to protect personal data.
"We prevent companies like this from spying on you," chief executive Marc Al-Hames told Reuters.
From private browsers like Cliqz to anti-trackers and ad blockers, such firms seek to shield users from intrusion. Mainstream providers in Europe are also trying to differentiate themselves by stressing privacy.
"Every time there is a scandal like this at the U.S. companies it boosts our business," Ralph Dommermuth, founder and CEO of Germany's United Internet, told Reuters. The company offers encrypted email services, hosted in Germany under its strict privacy laws, and does not sell users' data.
United Internet and others recently formed a 'Login Alliance' offering a single, secure way for their 50 million users to give consent in compliance with new European Union privacy rules that will enter into force in May.
That contrasts with rampant use in the past of Facebook Login by companies to tap personal data.
VOLCANIC ERUPTION
Privacy advocates have warned for years that Facebook's terms of use left it open to data harvesting.
Psychologist Aleksandr Kogan collected data on 50 million Facebook users by creating a personality quiz taken by a few hundred thousand people. In consenting to its terms, they let the app collect information on their Facebook 'friends' - without their knowledge or consent.
The U.S. academic passed that data to Cambridge Analytica, which applied data science and psychographic profiling to back Donald Trump's election campaign, violating Facebook's rules.
"It's the volcano that was going to erupt at some point - we just didn't know when," Ben Williams, director of communications and operations at Germany-based Adblock Plus, said.
AdBlock Plus has 100 million users seeking protection from ads such as auto-play videos. It is not a privacy product as such, although users can tweak settings to increase protection.
Most people do not mind normal search advertising, but object to intrusive third-party ads, Williams said.
LOSS OF FACEBOOK
The Facebook leak shows that the data should never have been collected, Cliqz's Al-Hames said: "We should all be outraged but nobody should be surprised. Everybody who has data will eventually lose that data."
Cliqz has an icon that shows how many private data points trackers are trying to access when you visit a site.
Its anti-tracking feature substitutes private data with random information to throw them off your trail, while there is also an anti-phishing feature to thwart data theft.
Cliqz does store browsing history at the 'edge' - on desktops and smartphones – and uses this to personalize search.
Without giving direct access, it also lets firms use that information to target adverts using its MyOffrz product in a way that complies with the new EU privacy rules.
"We can deliver a targeted ad - but it doesn't mean that there is information about you on our servers," Al-Hames said.
Cliqz has around half a million active users, while Ghostery, the browser extension that monitors which web servers are being called from a given page, has around 7 million users.
source: news.abs-cbn.com
