Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Global stocks fall, dollar regains ground ahead of Trump speech
NEW YORK - Stocks in major markets dipped and the Dow snapped a streak of records while longer-dated Treasury yields fell as investors prepared for President Donald Trump's Tuesday night address to a joint Congress session.
The global MSCI ACWI index was off 0.2 percent after rising more than 8 percent since Trump's Nov. 8 election on expectations for a pro-business administration.
But some investors were not convinced Trump would reveal much in the way of concrete plans to realize key campaign promises such as tax reform. Some portfolio managers mentioned the possibility of a US equities correction.
"There's significant risk for a potential delay or a watering down of the campaign promises. He can get some things done but it won't be as phenomenal as expected," said Paul Eitelman, Multi-Asset Investment Strategist at Russell Investments in Seattle.
Wall Street indexes and bond yields were not helped by fourth-quarter US data including gross domestic product growth that was below expectations. Some investors had hoped for an upward revision, according to portfolio managers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 25.2 points, or 0.12 percent, to close at 20,812.24, breaking a 12-day run of record closing highs.
The S&P 500 lost 6.11 points, or 0.26 percent, to 2,363.64 but still ended the day 10.5 percent higher than where it closed on Nov. 8. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 36.46 points, or 0.62 percent, to 5,825.44.
Trump met US state governors at the White House on Monday and said he sees "big" infrastructure spending and is seeking a military spending hike of more than 9 percent.
"The real question becomes how much patience does the market have," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey. "If you're basing your projection on pro-growth and pro-business, it's based on the tax reform. So what the market wants to hear is that this is still a top priority and that the process is moving ahead."
The US dollar clawed back earlier losses and was last up 0.2 percent against a basket of currencies. It hit a 14-year high early January but is off 0.9 percent year-to-date.
Longer-dated US Treasury yields fell on month-end buying and shorter-dated yields rose on bets the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates as soon as March, resulting in part of the yield curve hitting its flattest since November.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note yield was marginally lower in late trading at 2.365 percent, while the 30-year bond yield was down nearly 2 basis points at 2.967 percent.
In contrast, the two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to traders' view on Fed policy, was up over 3 basis points at 1.236 percent.
In late trading, comments from two senior Fed officials sparked a flurry of selling, with the 2-year yield jumping to its highest since December. Interest rate futures implied traders saw a nearly 57 percent chance the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting on March 14-15, up from roughly 31 percent late on Monday, according to Reuters data.
Oil futures dipped as OPEC-led output cuts were offset by concerns about increasing US crude production. Brent crude settled down 0.6 percent at $55.59 a barrel while US crude fell further to $53.94 after settling down 0.07 percent at $54.01.
Spot Gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,248.31 an ounce. On Monday it had hit a 3-1/2-month high intra-day but ended lower.