Dollar on high as US yields rise, Asia shares divided

SYDNEY - The US dollar touched a nine-month peak in Asia on Monday as the risk of faster inflation at home and greater bond issuance kept Treasury yields elevated, a painful mix for assets in many emerging market countries.

The dollar neared a four-month top on the yen at 106.90 , while the euro touched its lowest since January around $1.0810. It was also at a nine-month high against a basket of currencies.

The dollar has been on a tear since the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election on Nov. 8 triggered a massive sell off in Treasuries.

Futures for the 10-year note were at their lowest in 10 months on Monday while the cash yield was at 2.18 percent.

Just two days of selling wiped out more than $1 trillion across global bond markets, the worst rout in nearly 1-1/2 years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The jump in yields on safe-haven US debt threatened to suck funds out of emerging markets, while the risk of a trade war between the United States and China soured the mood in Asia.

"There are signs that higher bond yields and the knock of a stronger US dollar are having a domino impact, taking down the weakest risky assets first, before moving on to the next," said Alan Ruskin, global co-head of forex at Deutsche.

"There is only so much financial conditions tightening that risky assets can take when fiscal stimulus is still 'a promise' that lies some way in the future."

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was off 0.3 percent having suffered its lowest close since mid-July on Friday.

In contrast, Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.9 percent on the weakening yen to reach its highest in nine months.

It got an added fillip from data showing Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter, handily beating forecasts.

E-mini futures for the S&P 500 added another 0.3 percent early on Monday.

The Dow romped up 5.4 percent last week in its best performance since 2011. The S&P 500's 3.8 percent gain for the week was its strongest in two years.

Investors have favored drug and bank stock to reflect Trump's campaign promises to simplify regulation in the health and financial sectors.

INFLATION ON HORIZON
The stampede from bonds propelled longer-dated US yields to their highest levels since January, with the 30-year yield posting its biggest weekly increase since January 2009.

With the Republicans controlling Congress, there was a real prospect Trump could enact deficit-financed tax cuts and infrastructure spending, ending years of policy deadlock.

The resulting boost to inflation would only be heightened should Trump go through with plans for slapping tariffs on imports and deporting migrants.

The result was a surge in inflation expectations.

One market rate, measuring expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from today, shot up 30 basis points to 2.46 percent last week, the highest since late 2014. It had been as low as 1.84 percent in June.

Fed fund futures in turn imply a better-than-70 percent probability the Fed will hike rates in December.

Yet rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions at a pace that might appear premature to policymakers.

This was a point underlined by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Friday, saying the central bank was monitoring long-term US government borrowing costs even as the economy appeared strong enough to proceed with gradual rate rises.

Mexico's peso did gain over 1 percent on Monday to around 20.64 pesos per dollar after Trump appeared to soften some of his more incendiary campaign pledges that were seen hurting the Mexican economy.

The New Zealand dollar initially eased after a powerful earthquake rocked the island nation early on Monday, killing at least two people and prompting a tsunami warning that sent thousands fleeing to higher ground.

Yet the currency soon steadied around $0.7115 as rebuilding work promised to support an already strong economy and lessen the need for further interest rate cuts.

In the oil market, Brent crude added 6 cents to $44.81 a barrel, while U.S. crude was flat at $43.41.

source: www.abs-cbnnews.com

Stocks, gold fall as Fed hike back on the cards

HONG KONG - Asian stocks fell and the US dollar stood tall on Thursday as markets scrambled to factor in the possibility of another interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve as early as June. Gold stumbled.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.8 percent in early trade as the prospect of a second U.S. rate hike in six months raised concerns for emerging markets already grappling with a slowing China.

South Korea and Australia led regional markets lower with 0.5 and 0.6 percent falls each as investors refocused their attention on the growing differences between the health of the world's biggest economy and its global counterparts.

"In the short term, emerging markets are the most vulnerable," Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX strategy at Citibank wrote in a note to clients.

"Overall, the divergence trade is revived until further notice," he wrote in a note to clients, saying the Canadian dollar and the Aussie were vulnerable due to concerns around those economies.

Japan's Nikkei rose early thanks to a weaker yen, which fell to a three-week low against the dollar after minutes of the last Fed meeting suggested a rate increase is firmly on the table at its policy review next month. But the Nikkei later pared its gains to just 0.2 percent.

The Fed minutes noted Fed officials said it would be appropriate to raise interest rates in June if economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as firming inflation and employment.

Such views helped revive the prospect of a rate hike in June, which had been dismissed by many investors.

CME fed fund futures showed that the probability of a June rate increase by the Fed rose to 34 percent after the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday from 19 percent earlier in the day, 15 percent on Tuesday, and less than 1.0 percent a month ago, according to CME group's FedWatch.

Still, many in the market are still sceptical the Fed would raise rates ahead of Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to remain in the European Union, a risk that was pointed out by some Fed policymakers. July may be a stronger possibility.

The dollar index hovered just below a seven-week high of 95.27 scaled overnight, boosted by sharply higher U.S. Treasury yields.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield jumped more than 10 basis points on Wednesday while the yield curve steepened slightly, breaking a multi-month streak of flattening.

The greenback was steady at a three-week high of 110.25 against the yen hit overnight. The euro was pinned down near $1.1214 , its lowest since late March.

"With April activity indicators consistent with a healthy bounce-back in growth, we see risks of two rate hikes in 2016, with the first coming in the June/July time horizon," strategists at Barclays said.

Fed Vice Chairs William Dudley and Stanley Fischer are due to speak later in the day and the markets will be eager to get more details on the Fed's thinking.

Gold took the renewed expectations of a U.S. rate hike on the chin. Prices for the precious metal are inversely correlated to monetary policy easing, fell 0.1 percent to a three-week low $1256 per ounce.

The stronger dollar also weighed on commodities such as oil, which saw U.S. crude futures lose 0.4 percent to $48.00 a barrel. A stronger dollar tends to put non-U.S. buyers of greenback-denominated commodities at a disadvantage.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell to as low as $4563.50 overnight, the weakest since Feb. 19 and was hovering near those levels.

source: www.abs-cbnnews.com

China jitters send stocks tumbling

LONDON - World stocks and commodity prices tumbled on Tuesday, as poor Chinese data saw fears about its economic health intensify.

After a relatively upbeat few days for world markets, concerns about China were reignited by surveys that showed its giant manufacturing sector shrinking at its fastest pace in three years and its services sector also cooling.

Asian stocks, particularly in Japan and Australia, had swooned overnight, and the gloomy mood remained in Europe as the pan-regional FTSEurofirst 300 opened down 2.5 percent after its worst month in four years.

London, Frankfurt and Paris were down 2.3 to 2.5 percent and oil was also back in the red as it cut almost $1.5 off the $10 it had leapt between Thursday and Monday, which had been its biggest three-day surge in 25 years.

"The problem is that we have these brief spells of optimism like we had last week when U.S. GDP was revised up, but the overall theme is still the weakness in China and that is very hard to dispel from markets," said Philip Marey, a strategist at Rabobank in the Netherlands.

U.S. stock futures were also down 1.5 percent, while the mood was similarly wary in the currency and bond markets.

The safe-haven Japanese yen and the low-yielding euro, which has also been back in favor following its recent Greece-related falls, both rose against the dollar, to 120.16 yen per dollar and $1.1323 to the euro.

Gold another favorite of investors during periods of uncertainty, was up at $1,141 an ounce having risen 3.5 in August, its best month since January

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, summed up the situation saying in a speech in Indonesia that global economic growth was now likely to be weaker than had been expected just a few months ago.

She cited both a slower recovery in major advanced economies and a further slowdown in emerging nations and highlighted the need to "be vigilant for spillovers" from China's stutters.

"The transition (in China) to a more market-based economy and the unwinding of risks built up in recent years is complex and could well be somewhat bumpy," she added.

CAUTION! FRAGILE CHINA

The latest bout of volatility had been kicked off by losses on Wall Street overnight after comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer appeared to keep alive the chances of a U.S. interest rate hike in September.

China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) then compounded matters, falling to 49.7 in August from the previous month's reading of 50.0, its weakest showing in three years.

"Recent volatilities in global financial markets could weigh on the real economy, and a pessimistic outlook may become self-fulfilling," said He Fan, chief economist at Caixin Insight Group. A separate survey from Fan's organization had also shown the country's services sector slowing.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.6 percent to extend the more than 10 percent it had lost in August.

Chinese shares had remained relatively steady, with the Shanghai Composite Index down a modest 1.2 percent and the CSI300 index almost flat.

Instead the pain was felt elsewhere. Japan's Nikkei slumped 3.8 percent after tanking 8.2 percent in August. Australian, Indonesian and Hong Kong stocks were all down by more than 2 percent.

Metals markets were straining again too. London Metal Exchange copper fell 1 percent to $5,087.50 as markets reopened after a long bank holiday weekend, nickel slid 2 percent while aluminum and tin skidded too.

One of the other recent victims of the China jitters, the Australian dollar, edged up however, adding about 0.2 percent to $0.7125 after the Reserve Bank of Australia held Aussie interest rates steady.

source: www.abs-cbnnews.com