US economists more pessimistic, citing trade as major risk: survey

WASHINGTON - Economists have become more concerned about US growth prospects, citing trade friction as the major worry, but recession risks have receded slightly, according to a survey released Monday.

Nearly half of the panel surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession before the end of next year, down from 60 percent in the prior survey.

The panel expects the world's largest economy to slow, with growth falling below 2 percent for the first time since 2016, the survey showed.

Recent data have shown the US labor market remains strong, but manufacturing is in recession while the larger services sector is slowing, giving rise to fears about the health of the US economy, especially amid President Donald Trump's grinding trade war with China and increasing tensions with Europe.

The NABE panel "turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80 percent of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside," said Gregory Daco, the group's survey chair and chief US economist at Oxford Economics.

"The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to US economic activity," he said in a statement on the findings in the quarterly survey.

Looking further out, 69 percent of the panel expects a recession by mid-2021.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year and many market analysts expect more stimulus to be announced later this month, but the NABE panel was less convinced.

Daco said over 40 percent anticipate at least one more rate cut this year, while three-quarters of respondents expect at least one rate cut by the end of 2020.

The median forecast by the panel is for growth of 2.3 percent this year, slowing to 1.8 percent next year after 85 percent of the panel cut their real GDP projections.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Many sexually active Pinoys don't use condoms, survey says

MANILA—Most sexually active Filipinos don't always use condoms, a survey this year has found, which puts them at risk of sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancy.

A study by PhilCare, a leading health maintenance organization (HMO), showed that only 1 out of 10 Filipinos always use protection.

Of the 820 sexually active Filipinos polled nationwide, at least 30 percent said they used condoms very frequently to prevent pregnancy and at least 40 percent to avoid sexually transmitted diseases (STDs).

Condom use for the prevention of STDs was also higher among women with 48 percent than men with 36 percent. 

Some 36 percent of women and some 30 percent of men reported using condoms for pregnancy prevention.

The study also found out that Mindanaoans used protection more compared to the national average. 

Some 26 percent of respondents from Mindanao used condoms against unplanned pregnancy, more than twice the national average of 12 percent.

Meanwhile, at least 18 percent of respondents from Mindanao used condoms against STDs, way higher than the national average of 13 percent.

The survey also revealed that only 2 out of 10 young adults, aged 18 to 30, always used protection.

Over half of young adults used protection very frequently against STDs while almost 40 percent did to avoid pregnancy.

Meanwhile, only 12 percent of men and women between 31 to 40 used condoms against STDs while 14 percent said they did to prevent pregnancy.

Older respondents in between 40 to 50 reported lower condom use. Only 10 percent used protection against STDs while only 7 percent as contraception.

"It’s important that we gather relevant information to find solutions to this problem afflicting a growing number of Filipinos,” said lead researcher Fernando Paragas of the University of the Philippines.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

US economists expect recession in 2020 or 2021: survey

WASHINGTON - A majority of economists expect a US recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset amid Federal Reserve actions, according to a survey released Monday.

The survey came out after President Donald Trump pushed back against talk of a looming recession as a raft of US data reports last week showed a mixed picture on the economy.

"I'm prepared for everything. I don't think we're having a recession. We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich," Trump told reporters Sunday.

"I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money. They're buying. I saw the Wal-Mart numbers, they were through the roof," he said.

"And most economists actually say that we're not going to have a recession. But the rest of the world is not doing well like we're doing."

His chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow also downplayed talk of a recession.

"I sure don't see a recession," he told NBC's Meet the Press.

"Consumers are working at higher wages. They are spending at a rapid pace. They're actually saving also while they're spending... So I think actually the second half, the economy's going to be very good in 2019," he said.

"We're doing pretty darn well in my judgment. Let's not be afraid of optimism."

The National Association for Business Economists (NABE) found far fewer experts now think the next recession will start this year compared to a survey in February.

NABE conducted its policy poll as Trump put the Fed under constant attack, demanding more stimulus, but before the central bank cut the benchmark lending rate on July 31.

However, the Fed was already sending strong signals that it intended to pull back on the rate increases made in 2018 due to concerns starting to dog the economic outlook, including the trade war with China.

TRADE WAR SKEPTICISM

"Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the shift in monetary policy," said NABE president Constance Hunter, who is chief economist at KPMG.

Only two percent of the 226 respondents now see a recession this year, compared to 10 percent in February's survey, NABE said.

However, "the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021," Hunter said in a summary of the survey, which showed 38 percent expect a contraction of growth next year, while 34 percent don't see it until the following year.

More economists shifted their recession prediction to 2021, narrowing the gap from the prior report, which had many more expecting the change next year.

The results show 46 percent expect at least one more rate cut this year from the Fed, while about a third see policy holding where it is now, with 2.25 percent as the top end of the policy range.

Economists are skeptical about a resolution to Trump's trade wars, although 64 percent said a "superficial agreement is possible," NABE said.

But that was before Trump announced another round of tariffs of 10 percent on the remaining $300 billion in goods not yet hit by US punitive duties. The new measures will take effect in two stages, on September 1 and December 15.

As Trump continues his vocal campaign criticizing the Fed, the NABE survey found economists are concerned about the impact: 55 percent said his remarks do not influence Fed decisions but do "compromise the public's trust in the central bank."

And over a quarter of respondents said the criticism will "cause the Fed to be more dovish than otherwise, thus threatening its independence."

The survey also asked about fiscal policy, and a majority of economists said Trump's tax cuts "had an overall negative impact on housing activity over the past 18 months," due to changes in deductions allowed for mortgage interest.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Financial infidelity: One in five Americans hides bank account

One in five Americans has hidden at least one bank account or credit card from their spouse or partner, a survey has found.

Younger people tended to be more likely to keep an account from a partner, with almost a third of millennials (people aged 18-37) admitting to having done so, according to the study by YouGov Plc, an internet-based market research and data analytics firm.

Twenty-four percent of Gen Xers (aged 38 to 53) had hidden assets, and 17 percent of baby boomers (54 to 72) admitted to having hidden an account, it added.

Just eight percent of people 73 or older had hidden a card or account, it said.

The study also found that almost a third (31 percent) of Americans said that keeping a card or account secret was worse than cheating romantically.

Meanwhile, 11 percent of all couples say they never discuss their combined finances.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Obama most admired by Americans, Trump comes in second: Poll

CHICAGO - In a survey released Wednesday, US President Barack Obama beat out Donald Trump as the man most admired by Americans in 2016.

Twenty-two percent of those surveyed by Gallup chose Obama, followed by 15 percent who chose Donald Trump. Pope Francis was a distant third with four percent.

Hillary Clinton topped the list of the most admired women in 2016, with 12 percent of Americans choosing her.

She and Obama have been at the top of the poll every year since 2008.

The survey, which tends to favor current and past presidents and first ladies, was released at an especially sensitive time.

Tensions between Trump and the current White House have been growing for weeks over US foreign and domestic policies.

Over the weekend, Obama suggested he may have won a third term were he not constitutionally barred, to which Trump tweeted, in part: "NO WAY!"

Tensions flared again early Wednesday, when in an unprecedented personal condemnation of his soon-to-be predecessor, Trump tweeted: "Doing my best to disregard the many inflammatory President O statements and roadblocks."

"Thought it was going to be a smooth transition - NOT!"

Trump might take solace in the fact that he has been in the top 10 rankings of the most admired men in America before — five times, in fact, with the most recent being in 2015. He first appeared among the top 10 in 1988.

Among women, Hillary Clinton has now earned the most admired spot 21 times. She first led the poll in 1993 when she was first lady.

The current First Lady Michelle Obama was the second most admired woman in 2016, with eight percent of Americans choosing her.

Also among the top five women, though far behind Obama and Clinton, were German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and former and current talk-show hosts Oprah Winfrey and Ellen DeGeneres.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

PH ranks 41st in list of countries where gay men are happiest

MANILA -- The Philippines ranked 41st among countries where gay men are the happiest, according to a recent survey.

The results of said survey were published in a May 27 report from The Washington Post.

The online survey, conducted by Planet Romeo, an Amsterdam-based dating and community site, in collaboration with the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz in Germany, asked 115,000 gay men from all over the world about their society's view on homosexuality. They were also asked about their public behavior, as well as their satisfaction with life.

The Philippines, where 4,947 participated in the survey, ranked 41st out of 127 countries where the survey was conducted.

European countries topped the list, while countries in central Asia and Africa were considered as worst countries for gay men.

Iceland was named as the country where gay men are happiest, while Uganda was named as the worst place for gay men.

Aside from Iceland, the other countries in the top ten are Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Uruguay, Canada, Israel, Netherlands, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

Thailand was ranked 16, while the United States was at number 26. The United Kingdom ranked a bit higher at 23.

The ten worst countries for gay men are Kazakhstan, Ghana, Cameroon, Iran, Nigeria, Iraq, Kyrgyztan, Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda.

The survey also showed that only 28 percent of respondents are in a committed relationship with a man, while four percent are in a relationship with a woman.

The rate is higher for the 20 top countries, with 37 percent of respondents currently in a committed relationship with a man, while 3 percent were in a relationship with a woman.

For the 20 worst countries, 22 percent were in a committed relationship with a man, while 5 percent were in a relationship with a woman.

In the 20 worst countries, 56 percent of respondents experience discrimination within their own families.

source: www.abs-cbnnews.com

RIM plunges after grim quarterly report

NEW YORK — Research in Motion shares plunged Friday a day after the BlackBerry maker’s bleak earnings report and the delay in its new smartphone platform raised fresh fears about its survival.

RIM shares tumbled 19 percent to close at $7.39, their lowest level since 2003, and down more than 90 percent from their 2008 highs.

Analysts said the news from RIM was deeply disappointing — not only did the Canadian firm report a widening loss of $518 million, but it also said it would cut 5,000 jobs and delay its important BlackBerry 10 platform until early 2013.

The BB10 had been RIM’s effort — a last-ditch bid, according to some analysts — to regain traction after losing ground to Apple and smartphone makers using the Google Android platform.

“RIM’s prospects appear to be turning from bad to worse,” said Tal Liani, a research analyst at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

“In our view, the risk of total value destruction over the next few years is possible as at this point we cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

Other analysts said the price had fallen so low, that the company might extract some value by selling itself or parts of the company, such as its patents.

“With increased competition and a very low probability the market will support RIM’s new mobile computing ecosystem, we believe RIM will need to sell the company,” said Michael Walkley and the investment firm Canaccord Genuity.

He said the company could be worth $8 a share based on a “sum-of-the-parts analysis.”

A survey by the research firm IDC showed smartphones powered by Google’s Android software accounted for 59 percent of the global market in the first quarter of 2012, with 23 percent for Apple’s iPhones.

That left just 6.4 percent for BlackBerry, compared with 13.6 percent a year ago.

In the US market, only around five percent of smartphone buyers opted for BlackBerry in early 2012, according to a Nielsen survey.

source: interaksyon.com