US bond yields, dollar gain, stocks fall after Fed hike

NEW York - Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries hit their highest levels in more than five years on Wednesday while the dollar rose to its highest against the yen in 10 months after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signaled a faster pace of hikes in 2017.

Wall Street stocks ended a volatile session with their biggest percentage decline since before the Nov. 8 US presidential election, while gold prices hit a 10-month low.

As expected, the Fed raised the target federal funds rate 25 basis points to between 0.50 percent and 0.75 percent. It was its first rate hike in a year and its second since the financial crisis.

Central bank policymakers also shifted their outlook to one of slightly faster growth, with President-elect Donald Trump planning a simultaneous round of tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure. The Fed now sees three rate hikes in 2017 instead of the two foreseen in September.

"It was largely as expected, but it's pretty clear the market is taking it as a bit more aggressive or hawkish than it had thought," said Ed Keon, portfolio manager and managing director at QMA, a multi-asset manager wholly owned by Prudential Financial in Newark.

Yields on two-year Treasury notes rose to their highest level since August 2009, while three-year yields hit their highest since May 2010 and five-year yields rose to their highest since May 2011.

US two-year Treasury notes were last down 4/32 in price to yield 1.238 percent, an increase of more than 8 basis points from its late Tuesday levels.

The dollar rallied about 1.3 percent against the yen to 116.71 yen, its highest since Feb. 8, while the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hit a nearly three-week high of 101.960 and was last up 0.8 percent at 101.86.

The dollar and bond yields were mostly trading lower before the Fed statement.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 118.68 points, or 0.6 percent, to 19,792.53, while the S&P 500 lost 18.44 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,253.28, its biggest daily percentage drop since Oct. 11.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 27.16 points, or 0.5 percent, to 5,436.67.

US stocks traded both sides of unchanged just after the statement but began adding to losses during Fed Chair Janet Yellen's subequent news conference.

With US stocks, "we've had a great run, so it's tempting maybe to take a little bit off the table," Keon said. Stocks have rallied since the election on bets of higher US economic growth.

The S&P utilities index, which tends to fall as bond yields rise, fell 2 percent and led losses in the S&P 500, along with the energy index, which fell 2.1 percent.

MSCI's all-country world stock index was down 0.6 percent. The pan-European STOXX 600 share index ended down 0.5 percent.

"All elements we've received so far from the Fed, including the policy statement, the forecasts, the dot plot, tilt hawkish. They imply that the Fed sees more room to run with interest rates higher given the Trump election," said Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management in Boston.

In contrast to the Fed, the European Central Bank only last week extended its asset-buying campaign and moved to purchase more short-term debt.

GOLD, OIL LOWER

Gold turned lower and tapped the lowest in more than 10 months following the Fed statement, while oil prices fell with the dollar's gain.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,154.62 an ounce.

Brent crude futures settled at $53.90 per barrel, down $1.82, or 3.27 percent. US crude ended the session down $1.94, or 3.66 percent at $51.04 per barrel.

source: news.abs-cbn.com

Wall St Week Ahead: 'Cliff' worries may drive tax selling

NEW YORK - Investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by Dec. 31.

The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-loss selling even more appealing than usual.

Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple, analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.

Apple dropped 8.9 percent in this past week alone. For a stock that gained more than 25 percent a year for four consecutive years, the embedded capital gains suddenly look like a selling opportunity if one's tax bill is going to jump sharply just because the calendar changes.

"Tax-loss selling is always a factor (but) tax-gains selling has been a factor this year," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

"You have a lot of high-net-worth individuals in taxable accounts, and that could be what's affecting stocks like Apple. If you look at the stocks that people have their largest gains in, they seem to be under a little bit more pressure here than usual."

Of this year's top 20 performers in the S&P 1500 index, which includes large, small and mid-cap stocks, all but four have lost ground in the last five trading sessions.

The rush to avoid higher taxes on portfolio gains could cause additional weakness.

The S&P 500 ended the week up just 0.1 percent after another week of trading largely tied to fiscal cliff negotiation news, which has pushed the market in both directions.

A PAIN PILL FROM THE FED?

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting could offer some relief if policymakers announce further plans to help the lackluster U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is expected at about 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday after the conclusion of the meeting - the Fed's last one for the year.

Friday's jobs report showing non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November eased worries that Superstorm Sandy had hit the labor market hard.

"After the FOMC meeting, I think it's going to be downhill from there as worries about the fiscal cliff really take center stage and prospects of a deal become less and less likely," said Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.

"I think we are likely to see an escalation in profit-taking ahead of tax rates going up next year," he said.

MORE VOLUME AND VOLATILITY

Volume could increase as investors try to shift positions before year end, some analysts said.

While most of that would be in stocks, some of the extra trading volume could spill over into options, said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief derivatives strategist.

Volatility could pick up as well, and some of that is already being seen in Apple's stock.

"The actual volatility in Apple has been very high while the market itself has been calm. I expect Apple's volatility to carry over into the market volatility," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm in New York.

Shares of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, registered their worst week since May 2010. In another bearish sign, the stock's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38.

"There's a lot of tax-related selling happening now, and it will continue to happen. Apple is an example, even (though) there are other factors involved with Apple," Aama said.

While investors may be selling stocks to avoid higher taxes in 2013, companies may continue to announce special and accelerated dividend payments before year end. Among the latest, Expedia announced a special dividend of 52 cents a share to be paid on Dec. 28.

To be sure, the big sell-off in stocks following the Nov. 6 election was likely related to tax selling, making it hard to judge how much more is to come.

Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston, said there's a decent chance that the market could rally before year end.

"Even with little or spotty news that one would put in the positive bucket regarding the (cliff) negotiations, the market has basically hung in there, and I think it's hung in there in anticipation of something coming," he said.

source: abs-cbnnews.com

Wall St Week Ahead: The market is oversold, but major signs say "sell"

NEW YORK - Normally a big decline would set up Wall Street for a technical rebound. But that may not be the case next week, even after the market posted its worst weekly loss for the year and the S&P fell for six straight sessions.

With the corporate earnings season drawing to an end and recent U.S. economic data raising doubts about the pace of growth, the S&P 500, which is down 7.3 percent so far in May, could decline further next week as concerns about the financial health of Europe persist.

"What has changed in the world since April? We went from hearing a constant refrain that the world is awash in money and markets must go higher to hearing nobody wants to take any risk. ... All in a week," said Peter Cecchini, global head of institutional equity derivatives at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in New York.

The S&P 500 fell 4.3 percent for the week, its steepest weekly decline this year, and closed below 1,300 for the first time in four months.

The hotly awaited market debut of Facebook on Friday was marred by technology glitches on the Nasdaq in sending messages back to the brokerages that handled orders of Facebook Inc for individual, or "retail," investors. Those problems rekindled fears about the market's electronic trading system and caused some investors to stay away from equities.

Weighing on sentiment is a growing sense among investors that the euro zone debt crisis is nearing new heights, fueled by fears of the potential for a Greek euro exit and the deteriorating health of the Spanish banking system

Solid corporate earnings and upbeat U.S. economic indicators had fueled the rally in U.S. stocks, offsetting jitters over Europe. But with earnings almost out of the way and data starting to disappoint, investors have shifted their focus back to headlines out of Europe.

Leaders of the Group of 8 major industrial economies meet this weekend to try to tackle the financial crisis in Europe. U.S. President Barack Obama, the G8 host, has urged European leaders repeatedly to do more to stimulate growth, fearing contagion from the euro crisis that could hurt the U.S. economy and his chances of re-election in November.

"The market is extremely oversold. Nonetheless, all major indicators remain on sell signals," said Larry McMillan, president of options research firm McMillan Analysis Corp, in a report on Friday.

"We expect a powerful but short-lived rally should be coming soon. But at this point, barring some major shifts in our indicators, it may only be a rally in a larger down-trending market," McMillian said.

The Facebook effect

Facebook, the No. 1 online social network, disappointed investors with a tepid market debut on Friday. Shares rose a scant 0.6 percent - nowhere near expectations for double-digit gains on the first trading day - and the day was marred by technical problems due to huge order volume. The stock closed at $38.23 after falling as low as $38, its initial offer price.

The disappointing debut curbed investors' appetite for other social media stocks. Hardest hit was Zynga Inc, which closed down 13.4 percent to $7.16 after falling as low as $6.40. The stock was temporarily halted twice due to sudden declines.

LinkedIn shares fell 5.7 percent to $99.02, and Groupon fell 6.7 percent to $11.58. Zynga and Groupon, both of which went public late last year, are also trading below their IPO prices.

Despite the disappointing market debut and the weak performance of social media stocks, market participants are still optimistic about Facebook going forward.

"In any brand new area, social media in this case, most are going to be losers and only some are going to be winners. Yes, the IPO was disappointing, but Facebook is clearly the winner here and others aren't," said Randy Warren, chief investment strategist at Warren Financial Service.

Next week's economic data includes April's existing home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m. Existing home sales are forecast at a 4.60 million-unit annual, up from 4.48 million in March.

New homes sales figures are due on Wednesday at 10 a.m. April's new home sales are also expected to post an increase, gaining about 7,000 units over a 328,000-unit annual rate in March.

Initial jobless claims and durable goods orders will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Consumer sentiment is due at 9:55 a.m. on Friday.

For the week, the Dow is off 3.5 percent and the Nasdaq is down 5.3 percent. — Reuters

source: gmanetwork.com